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Velti Halka Acık Limited Şirket Message Board

  • edharris758 edharris758 Jun 13, 2013 12:56 PM Flag

    curious to Hjablmoe opinion on this new low confidence and 6k

    we have heard from everyone so far except him. confidence is at an all time low price is at an all time low people are getting out out of fear and no one has anything positive to say anymore. I'll be looking to add 2000 more shares wants my funds clear to max out my Roth

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    • Sorry Ed, was traveling today. Nothing has changed in my thinking. This stock too cheap versus value of its businesses. I'm not worried about another offering (I promise guys, no secondary anytime soon). I'm not worried about HSBC (worst case they pull the loan, all this will do is force VELT to hire a banker to sell, and I believe this is worth a lot more than $1.43). I have no idea who is puking, but someone definitely is. Obviously there can always be some piece of bad news none of us see coming outside of these two red herrings. But this is the upside of value investing. The downside is you find yourself in poorly run companies (or at least companies that have had missteps in the recent past) and you are often alone in buying the stock. The upside however, is if you own a company based on the value of its assets as opposed to the future earnings stream, it takes a lot bigger piece of bad news to derail the thesis.

      And keep in mind, this is stupidly cheap. Current Assets less ALL Liabilities is $116 million. If you believe the company's EBITDA guidance and use this as a proxy for value creation (FCF would overstate this because part of that will be turning existing assets, AR, into Cash. EBITDA however should be 100% additive) for rest of this year, this metric should be closer to $150million by years end. Sure, we need to discount the receivables somewhat just due to time value of money, but the good news is, money's cheap right now, even in Greece. Let's take 20% off the receivables--on my math, that's $45mln off this $150million number, let's call it an even $100 million. Current market cap is $130mln. Than means even assuming a 20% discount to Face Value of AR, at last price you are buying the WHOLE BUSINESS for $30 million.

      Cheap can get cheaper, and the trend is not our friend right now. But a whole lot would have to go wrong for there to be permanent value destruction here--and not much has to go right to make a lot. GLTA

    • ed, pl read my post on todays option action and consider this is not an amateur playing with $400,000, in most likelihood - a purchase now may clear your funds out of your Roth permanently!

      • 2 Replies to whitakerk1
      • The interest is 1000 contracts, the volume is 0! There is not going to be a bankruptcy - that much is sure. HSBC doesn't like #$%$ money into the wind. I don't know why Ross is unable to garner any interest for preferreds or short-term loans. A guy with supposedly a lot of street cred should have gotten either instead of diluting the shareholders to oblivion at the last minute. But this should be the last round of financing and the company is set to move up exponentially from 4Q onwards. Ross will have to show FCF turning positive in the third quarter first. That won't happen till they report in Nov. If so, credibility will return and this will be another of those envied stocks that quickly become a 10 bagger (

      • why would they cleared out if im planning on holding for more than the next 6 months? do you really think this is going BK?