Fear (and greed) is what prevents the average retail investor to profit big from the markets. Remember that Wall St is a casino and can't operate if everyone makes money. After re-reading their Form 6-K issued on June 24, they are pretty clear that there will be no more secondary offerings in the near term. With the vote to increase AS to 150M being requested as late as Jul 31 and Ross being confident that August 2013 is the inflection point, the fear of another secondary at these firesale prices is pretty much removed. Remember they are expecting to be at least $5M (up to $15M) FCF positive this year. That means a mammoth turnaround for the last 5 months of the year.
I believe that Ross can do it as he has been swallowing bitter pill after pill to cut costs, turn away lucrative customers (with long DSOs) and using up most of the previous AS to raise capital to make it through the summer. The timing of the last pill was suspect but it is done and over with, water under the bridge etc.
Those prognosticating BK are just exacerbating that fear that is already here, as seen from the stock price and short position, but cannot provide any facts to back up their claims anymore. The 6-K is pretty clear about that and the corporate governance is very impressive for a $1.XX stock. Those comparing this to priceline in the $1s are also mis-guided. This is probably not going to be a $800 stock ($100B market company) one day. Besides, I don't think anyone there held for a 800x gain. Most would have sold for relatively paltry profits along the way. Those kind of long term moves are akin to winning the lottery. I am being realistic. I think this company is being prepped to be sold by Ross for $2-3B in the next 2-3 years, which equates to about $20/share. With the position I have, I will be happy with just that.
Less than 30 days before the turnaround starts. Can't wait....
Appreciate your thoughts and clearly it is possible. I'll be happy if you are 30% right.
PCLN is a unique story - it went from $1000 to well under $10 in 18 months 2001-2002, and in this decade, its been a savings account drawing 100% interest. There are some long-term holders there, as with Berkshire. VELT is destined to be bought so we all hope not to quickly, after it can prove the turnaround is possible. Same is true for MM, which is now many times larger than VELT, thanks to very bullish trade since April, which could portend how trade in VELT could close the year out.
Well wih your 90k shares at ~1.4, you will be worth just shy of 2MM. i say thats a success. I might buy one more small lot to get me above 50k , ill take a cool 1MM and go indexing after that. we need to remember that insiders want this to go up too. the only issue i see is Ross not getting paid in mostly stock