MM paid 3 x sales to acquire Jumptap. That is like paying $750M or $8/share for VELT. Since they didn't use any cash, they might still be out there shopping. Who knows? They might have approached VELT and lowballed a $3 offer and Moukas could have said, "take a hike". In any case, VELT is now in play, especially once they turn FCF positive this month.
Excellent post. At some time fear will give way to value. When this happens, VELT will trade at a much higher price. As you note, MM is a potential suitor of VELT. However, there are alot of other potential acquirors (many with much deeper pockets than MM). It's easy to see how many social media companies seeking to increase their mobile presence, could benefit from VELT's technology.
IMO this explains why a company of the small stature of VELT has attracted "A" list talent such as Ross and Baker. Properly managed, and with a cleaned up balance sheet, VELT is worth 10X to 100X more than it is worth today.
91M is the current outstanding shares. 7 million is reserved for employee options/restricted stock. The 150 million is the new authorized shares limit. They never have to use the additional 50M shares (for capital or acquisition), if they don't need it. Market cap is based on the actual shares in circulation or 91M (for now). I think we start moving up after the ER - slowly if they only forecast FCF in 4Q. Violently, if they say they are already turning the corner this month. As tempting as it is, I am not adding till after the ER.
Well stated - the price to sales number of .24 is huge for VELT - MM's p/s is 15 times higher, even AUGT is 7 times higher. I hope they read this board and I hope they have the sense to note this when they speak to the public next week. Saying VELT is oversold is like saying we need some rain, but this one number, with the comparison you note, is extremely telling.
People generally aren't willing to pay 5 x sales for a company teetering on bankruptcy which is what Velti is going through (in the eyes of investors at least). All we need is for Velti to generate just a single penny in FCF. Doesn't have to be the 5 million they're forecasting, but just one penny to prove to people that they're capable of generating a profit but more importantly that they won't go bankrupt.