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Velti plc Message Board

  • edharris758 edharris758 Sep 12, 2013 9:26 PM Flag

    Velti money held hostage: a rant from a long

    I guess i just need to vent...but man, im still stunned at how i got myself into this mess of a company. Ive been eyeing TSPT for 2 months now, ready to go all in, tradin at 2.68 and having 4.40 cash on the books. The greatest undervalued stock out there right now. But no. I chose this. I chose this after it had already fallen 85% for the year. And now im down 75% on it. And my money is held hostage. Which means TPST goes up without me. And Velti needs a 4 bagger for me to even see the light of day. And best case is probably a buyout for what, 2 bucks a share. I make 33k. Whoopy!! Well it beats BK, but still. I am amazed i single handedy picked the current #3 worst performing stock of 2013. I mean all companies surrounding velti are trading at 10 cents or a nickel or what have you. Death spiral. Delistment. Crazy. All i had to do was stick with NIHD and id still be at breakeven! Oh well. Maybe next lifetime.

    Does anyone really have any clue how often top 5 worst stocks of the year perform 1-2 years later? Id say generally not good? Ill have to backtest. Still, out of 6513 tradeable stocks, i pick the toilet. haha

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    • Ed,

      I have been catching knives for the last 13 years.

      I always remember the dogs who have nearly killed me.
      WCOM, SMD, PXPL, MCOX
      Plus there are many dogs which I would been killed if not for divine intervention-
      utsi, nbg, abat, velt

      Ultimately I know I will be a roadkill but hopefully I am debt free by then.

      Good Luck To You.

    • It's simple really, longs were either duped by corrupt management or incompetence of historic proportion...either way all the lawsuits have validity...my suggestion is to sell the next 5 cent bounce and get on board with one or more of the lawsuits (not sure how that works) unlikely to get much, a few cents on the dollar maybe. Then move on and never look back. When tax loss selling and window dressing season starts 40 cents will look really nice.

    • "Of all the speculative blunders, there is none greater than seeking to average a losing game."

      Jesse Livermore.

      Always, always, and only average "UP" when going long and building a position. Your initial buy needs to prove itself to you - by being profitable. Never, ever be lured into buying more of loser because you sense a bargain - you need to instead acknowledge that you are wrong. And that you need to stop being wrong, by selling the losing position. The best way to play a deep value long as a retail player, is to wait for the arrival of 13-d filer, someone who can CHANGE the way a firm does business, or change out the management teams, of throw out the Board. And then effect positive change.

      See Loeb and YHOO.

    • Yes Ed, Moukas fooled a bunch of us. I lost a good amount of money on this name. I kept thinking that the fact that the IPO underwriters have done due diligence and the growth... and.... well whatever, we all know it was a sham now.

      It sucks to lose money, but keep it in perspective. Let this serve as a lesson in diversification in investing, for less than the tuition for a top tier MBA.

      Finally, ignore anyone that says that you were wrong to not listen to them, ie DMF. Those who were short won this battle but you can look on the Z or TSLA boards from 6 months ago and find plenty of shorts who lost those battles. There are 2 sides to every argument and sometimes we take the wrong side.

      In investing, as in life, it is important to keep perspective and move forward. Success is never achieved by dwelling in the past.

      • 1 Reply to momobigtime
      • "ignore anyone that says that you were wrong to not listen to them, ie DMF"

        Perhaps you need to reread what I said more critically!

        I offered advise, just as you did! Nothing more, nothing less. We all know I tried hard and took heat while providing a rational point of view. Like I said, I DGAF who puts me on ignore, and no need to pow-wow over it.

        You are wrong if you belive that success is not achieved by looking at the mistakes of the past. WHat do you believe a "learning experinece' is sir?!

        Sentiment: Buy

    • Had to laugh at the "hostage" reference. Years ago I created this ID JUST for this very reason. Makes me feel bad about myself. I finally cut the cord on a bounce and GNBT now trades at .03 cents! With a 52 week range of .03 - .09. I think that one was a hoax. This one is almost on life support. Waiting like a sycophant with blinders on for this one to bounce. :( could happen?

    • Ed,

      since you keep posing this quiestion of how you got here, let me offer one point of view that may help you and others in your investment decisions. If you want to allocate a specific amount to an investment (gamble or whatever) then you should stick to it. Your list of mistakes that I have PERSONALLY whitnessed is as follows:

      1) Over allocated to Velti
      2) Continued to average down without a plan of escape for even those shares.
      3) Never sold those overly allocated shares even when there was a slight spike that made those shares profitable.
      4) continued to believe in a turnaround without the bad news being fully developed and cooked into the pps.

      In hindsight, I think the one move that would have saved you from this trap that you find yourself in is #3. If you find yourself in a position to where you are ONLY buying shares to get your average down, you should probably start a hefty regimen of flipping those shares as soon as a 10% or so profit is achieved. That way, in addition to driving your PPS down, you would have also been freeing up your funds for another round of purchases, at further reduced prices.

      I hope this helps, although I am almost positive you still have me on ignore.

      GL2U - START FLIPPING ED!

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Hi Ed, Feel your pain buddy I am not in for a massive amount and have averaged down so now averaging .88 and against my better judgement will probably purchase more on the hope of good news to atke the average down to the .6 mark. Even though there is real risk here I think the new team has communicated all the bad news and there is the possibility of upward momentum. Probably gonna try to flip it a few times to regain some losses!

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Hi, my name is Peter, and I too admit that I was sucked into losing 15% of my portfolio on this one company. I knowingly chose to discount the short case (which I knew about fully in May 2012: the dodgy A/R and the drunken binging on highly doubtful foreign mobile-advertizing operations), and the evidence of my eyes and ears that the management was borderline imbecilic - all because of Q4 2011, when it seemed the company could not fail to make money in the "hot" MA/MM segment.

      Although I sold 1/2 my pitiful holding @ 2.40 after the astonishing revelations of 2012 Q4, I still nibbled again at 1.88 and 0.97, in fits of optimism, after promising myself I would not do that.

      I always believed there was a profitable core at the heart of Velti's business, once they stripped away (ie. sold off) the dead wood of the failing acquisitions and the uncollectable A/R. So I really have only myself to blame for the fiasco of my single worst lifetime investment, although I think I was also duped by the incredible lying and misrepresentation of Moukass and Cheung.

      Although I continued to set the lowest possible expectations at each cc (Q1 and Q2), the current management has continued in the company tradition of staggering surprises to the downside, always effortlessly blowing away my worst fears.

      My sincere advice to others in Velti Anonymous, now, is to ignore the pumpers and refuse to buy more until there is compelling evidence, from cash flow, that BK will be avoided - and to ignore the bashers until the boom drops - just sit there like a deer in the headlights until this thing is resolved one way or the other.

      Why? 0.35 is not "cheap" if they cannot configure ANY profitable business,run out of cash, can't collect a dime and can't sell the rotting limbs for any worthwhile money. On the other hand, don't expose yourself (by selling) to the dreadful possibility that the thing could recover to $2 (miracle sale, or bedrock profitability in USA), while you nurse your realized loss

      • 1 Reply to pjmyers_tsi
      • My sincere advice to others in Velti Anonymous, now, is to ignore the pumpers and refuse to buy more until there is compelling evidence, from cash flow, that BK will be avoided - and to ignore the bashers until the boom drops - just sit there like a deer in the headlights until this thing is resolved one way or the other.

        This is solid, sound advice and has no place on this board! My modestly different take is to sell now and secure something, knowing there is lots of time to get back in - at least you're good to not lose everything just holding and waiting, likely for BK.

    • Your rant is understandable. If it makes you feel any better I've lost more than you. This stock may single handedly prove to me that I don't know what I'm doing.

      • 1 Reply to hchristopher45
      • Not a I told you so,

        but can you offer any thoughts on a few of the mistakes that you have made on this to others?

        One would be not listening to a voice of reason, but I can understand why a long would not want to take into account the view of a short, considering that most are jerks about their position and knowledge, offering very little compelling reasons to wait.

        I like to believe I gave each of you (maybe not LD) many many reasons why not to purchase at the levels you did. Perhaps go back and take a look if you have the time.

        GL2U

        Sentiment: Buy

 
VELT
0.06260.0000(0.00%)Dec 13 4:00 PMEST

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