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Velti plc Message Board

  • longdubai longdubai Sep 17, 2013 8:04 AM Flag

    No Pumping No Bashing, Just an view

    Hi All, Firstly great work shorts you have done well to date, take my hat off to you on that call! I personally am neither Long or Short but have a position that I have averaged down from getting in around the $1.3 mark. Position now sits around the 0.54 mark so obviously cards on the table I have a vested interest. That said I could cash out with minimal losses on any short term increase upo to 0.45ish.

    My persoanl take on the situation like many is that the Cpompany has very real issues, I mean SP do not reach this level from great management, financial results and open honest guidance do they! That said I honestly believe that now Velti has opened up to all the bad news any positive catalyst

    1. Investment bank finding buyer for Mobclix
    2. Delloitte recovering ANY of the bad debt
    3. MGage Communicate Platform taking off in Q3 Q4
    4. Q3 Results being anything but disasterous and given the seasonality?
    5. Scott Avila announcing CEO removal (not even going to mention his name as I dont respect him enough)
    6. Cost savings continuing (resources, facilities, opex, capex blah blah)

    So Both long and short alike my take is that it is down to risk, if your long then really the news can only get better from here or BK which I personally thing is a half year away at least. If your short you have had a great run and hoping for ongoing SP reduction or BK may turn round to bite you. I think an ounce of good news (come on Scott ditch the fraudster), will cause a temporary upswing but not to the rediculous levels some have been spouting and the shorts left may be hurt.

    For those wanting to invest wait for good news or confirmation of a turnaround plan before investing just too risky.

    Just my take on what is if nothing else an interesting situation! GLTA, and I do mean all!

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • You seem to be in a similar situation as me in terms of cost basis and with near term expectations. We have based at these BK levels for 19 trading days, including today, or almost 4 weeks! I am not sure what the shorts are clinging to, in terms of getting more for their money. The interest they pay on their position does not justify the potential capital gains from these levels. A de-listing letter in 2 weeks is not going to get them anything as this has been drained to the hilt and the company still has another 90 days from then to get back to $1 (without a RS). But I am glad that the shorts are still holding strong as they are needed for the triple digit gains on any positive news. I doubt the CRO can recommend removing the guy who hired him (CEO) - LOL! But hopefully the board talks some sense into the CEO and makes him step aside to officially signal the change in the company's direction. Maybe even a name change! They are already collecting from 1Q and 2Q13 ARs as they are all

      • 2 Replies to betasplen1
      • re: " But hopefully the board talks some sense into the CEO and makes him step aside to officially signal the change in the company's direction. Maybe even a name change! "

        I agree on both counts. A new CEO and a new name for the company would drastically help this stock.

        See HIPP(formally AUGT) as an example.
        Good luck Beta.

      • They are already collecting from 1Q and 2Q13 ARs as they are all less than 100 days DSO accounts. With the $80M in expense savings and drastic reduction in cash burn (suspect 2-3M for 3Q and FCF breakeven or even slightly positive in 4Q), the $25M should see them through the turnaround. I can wait till the cows come home to get a double but with the help of the shorts, I may not have to wait that long. Your enemy becomes your ally sometimes...

    • people that are short here are not worried about an uptick to .50 or $1. They have been short a LONG time.

    • when they announce any of those turn around items you have listed then why would you think the company would even consider bk? It has only one creditor that could push it to BK and they even give them more money in July fully knowing the situation. With clean slate and massive write down that we saw of ALL their problem accounts then there is no more material negative issues that can effect us to the point of BK. This is a case of hurry up and wait for a 2 to 3 Qs so the they can get their legs underneath them and get focused on the high margin Mobile Marketing sector. I do agree that once the CEO gets booted we should get a nice boost back into the stock.

      • 3 Replies to sirius_yomama_2
      • Do you know or are you speculating?

        This company has lost ALL credibility. It has nothing left - zero street cred. If they had collectible AR they would've released it. Shirttail insiders would be buying - the stock wouldn't be at .36.

        Nothing you are saying is true or makes any sense - that is - unless you KNOW. So do you?

      • You think that was ALL of their problem accounts? I'm not convinced.

      • Hi Sirius,

        I think to ignore the possibility of BK is not realistic if they do not improve their business performance they may jsut run out of cash and credit over time, there is that risk but I agree that this does not seem imminent and given continued business improvement and cost reduction they could avoid this totally. Personally I would like Investor relations to annmounce a new startegy , change to management (you know who I mean) and realistic forecast Q on Q of how they will improve so that investor confidence can grow. Will not happen over night but with the right plan and implementation anything could happen.

        Sentiment: Hold

 
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