Can someone explain why NKE is still holding steady at approx $44/share when they have pre-announced terrible earnings. When or will NKE start another descent ??
Is the brand name/intrinsic value/share buyback holding prices at these levels.
Any takers ?
You write that the entire market has access to the same information. You are right. However, people react to the same information in different ways. Some people try to behave rationally, others don't have a clue what it means to be rational. I am convinced that it is nearly impossible for humans to behave rationally. Read the Social Animal by Arron Aronson, a wonderful text on social psyc, and you may agree with me.
How many marketing campaigns appeal to rationality?
You right that "there is no such thing as a cheap stock." I disagree:
The rational investor is a very rare breed. I do not claim to be immune to this quirk of human nature, and I do not think
that others are rational simply because they invest money in stocks. The price of a given stock is based on the supply and demand
for that stock. The closing price is determined by the last 2 parties to trade the stock on a given day. Supply and demand is
determined by investor perception. This perception is often flawed. I do not look to stock price to determine the value of a company.
If I did, I could never find a bargain. Instead, I try to look at the company to determine value.
Right, the lower the price, the better when it comes to buying a stock. The lower the purchase price, the higher the return. Simple.
You seem to pride yourself on being rational. Your argument seems logical. I challenge you to see the ways in which you do not behave rationally. To be rational, you have to have a profound understanding of your emotions. When your emotions get the best of you, you can be sure that rationality has left you.
In case you are wondering, I have a strong background in clinical psychology.
. However, I do not believe that
Please tell us why Fila isn't a good company or never was?
I know Fila has been around for 65 years, now if Fila
isn't a good company or never was as you say. How do
you explain that?
How do you know Nike will be out there year 2050?
I was refering to mngmnt about IBM and Gerstner, isn't
it the mngmnt that organize the company?
Your mix of mngmnt and organization in your argumentation
shows that you have some difficulties admiting other
people being right? The mess IBM was in was as bad it can get. Why else choose an outsider to run the company. Why get rid
of 200 000 employees?
There is 100's of books about IBM's failure 10-15 years ago.
Gerstner have reorganized the whole thing bottom up.
And you talk about shake things up??
So why is Nike fumbling and Adidas Hot?
Tells us cheap crap heads why?
Nike dropped from over 70 to 40 and in the same
time Adidas is gone from 160 to almost 300. Why is
Adidas sales and profit up and Nike isn't moving at all?
What do you mean with a low price, the lower the better?
How can you say a stock is cheap? If you have a market that
works the price is more or less right at that just time,
with the same information availble to the whole market.
There is no such thing as a cheap stock.
If the stock goes down what do you think it means?
And if it contiues to 0 then you could get even more for free,
would you be happy then?
I'm in it just for the money, not see my money fade away.
...or as a person whose investment opinions I respect once said, cheap crap is still crap.
Your arguments suck, because when INTC suffered from "The Bug" they had, and still have, wonderful management. IBM was
"saved" by Gerstner only because they had the organization in place and Gerstner's main job was to shake things up, not build them
from scratch. Job's temporary magic on APPL's stock price is due to a one-time event---MSFT's minute investment in non-voting
APPL preferred stock. As with the current bump in NKE's price, this will slowly come to pass (if nothing else happens).
Most every turnaround was once a very good company that just "forgot" what made it successfull. This is certainly not a characteristic that Fila shares with INTC or IBM.
If you seek to buy good stock at low prices, then it seems to me that you must first base you your buy decision on the
fundamentals of the company. There is an entire school of thought that attempts to base buy and sell decisions on the recent changes in
stock price. I hope I never do this. First I try to find a great company, like Nike, and then see if the stock is selling at a low
price--the lower the better. I bought at 44, and I would like nothing better than to see the price drop, the further the better, so I
can double or triple my original position and lower the average price I pay per share.
Why would you buy Intel when they had a bug in the chip?
Why would you buy IBM when it was a big mess.
Intel fixed the Bug.
IBM changed mngmnt (Gerstner). Stock up!
Borland changed. Stock up!
Adidas changed. Stock up!
Just look at www.fila.com (how can it be worse)?
If you ask them questions that wait for a reply,
it's like the whole company is low on energy, but
people move new people new ideas more energy.
Just look at Steve Jobs, he might not save Apple but...
at least it isn't going down.
But when you have the best of mngmnt and the stock is just
going one way (down) then it's time to worry.
What if M$ begun to sink like Titanic??
So, since I'm in no hurry I picked Fila before
Earnings are usually released on the 3rd Thursday in the month after the end of each quarter (except end of year results). If this holds then earnings should be released on:
Thursday, March 19/98 (for FY '98 Q3) at 4:15 pm EST
Why would you buy into a company that you believe is poorly managed??? Would you tolerate bad management if you owned the whole thing? Then why accept it when you are part owner?
Glad to hear you are making money. Perhaps it is time to run with that.