There's nothing surprising about this successful launch. It was expected by everyone, right?
Sega's Dreamcast had a huge opening day too. So did Sony's PS3. The faithful and the tech geeks will always make a cool new product a successful launch. The real question is where the mainstream consumer needs, wants, or can afford, the item. I'm not comparing the iPhone to those other systems. I'm saying how it sells 1-6 months from now is far more important than how it sells in the first few days.
I've been invested in RIMM since 2002, and I still think RIMM goes to 250, I've been saying that to the shorts, bashers forever, but I have to admit, the iphone will definitely take a big bite out of Blackberry sales. I'm a Blackberry fanatic and my friend got an iphone, got it connected in 30 minutes, I don't believe all this bs negative hype about all these problems, everyone I know has one and not only had no problems but are addicted to it. I tried it out last night and I have to admit, the iphone is the first product I've ever seen or experienced that actually puts the Blackberry to shame. My blackberry curve now ooks, feels and behaves like a device that's outdated light years compared to the iphone. I hope Apple does have a pullback because I'll sell some RIMM and diversify into AAPL as well.
Good Honest post... I think we all should buy on a pullback. I am addicted also already. The interest in the phone when people see the phone and play with it is amazing. I get nothing but positive reactions from skeptics once they play with mine. This is going to be good...
In my opinion, the PS3 didn't have a killer app and there were a LOT of people buying one to flip it on ebay. I bought an iPhone on Friday and most of the people I talked to were buying one for themselves. If you look at the number available on ebay, it's a small percentage of available units.
I bought a Dreamcast myself and loved it. But it wasn't something that everyone else saw and said "I have to have one." That's not the case with the iPhone. Everyone who's played with it has fallen in love with the interface. The only objection I heard for one of them was more along the lines of "I don't need a phone with all that" but everyone has been impressed.
I think you will see a steady stream of buyers. The initial group were people like me, the gadget freaks who made up their mind to get one in January. The next wave will be made up of the cautious buyers who waited to make sure the phone performs as advertised. Add to that the trailing group of people over the next two years who are waiting out their current contracts, and I think you'll see very steady sales.
The mobile web interface and visual voicemail are two extremely killer apps. I know a lot of the glowing reviews sound like hyperbole, but those two apps will go down in my book as two things that I will not live without anymore - joining the likes of my Tivo and Bluetooth access on my car. I think you'll be impressed when you try it yourself.
Good post. I think I'd like an iPhone too but I'm not about to break my contract to then spend another $650 after sales tax.
You're right, the PS3 still lacks a killer app but I'm sure the majority of people would love to have one for $199. Except it's $599, and with rising food and energy costs I'm just not sure the mainstream consumer is strong enough. I agree we'll see steady healthy sales, but some of the bullishness here is out of control.
It's also worth noting there will be some cannibalization of iPod sales.