Hello? Someone stated that Aapl might bomb if it doesn't reach earnings of $1/sh. Huhhhh?? Let's see, last quarter was $0.92/sh with next to no profit or ATT revenue streams from Iphone, no update Ipods, no updated Macs, and didn't include any back to school purchases of PCs for the new college kids. So is there really ANY question out there in anyone's mind that there will be less then a 10% increase in profits this quarter over last? I honestly think the number will be between $1.05 - $1.20 depending on what percentage ATT is giving Aapl.
I'm not ready to endorse $1.25+, but AAPL's history over the last 4 quarters has been a positive surprise of 22% to 46%.
Let's say they beat consensus by 30%. That would put Q4 EPS at $1.08; a 40% beat would require EPS of $1.16.
No matter how you look at it, these are "aggressive" numbers. Except for one thing: they are supported by history. So anything above $1.00 causes the analysts to up 2008 earnings to $5.00+ from the current $4.49.
Using our current trailing EPS of 47 (the lowest of Cramer's 4 horsemen and the same as old school Monsanto!) we get to a share price of $235. Have a nice evening.
Hold of for some undoubted bumps on the way. Oct option expiration date will undoubtedly be preceeded by a unsubstantiated rumor of a glitch in the production process for Iphones or something like that. Just enough to get the stock to capitulate right before the options expire and make and cost investors tens of billions. Mark my words.
Would be sweet. $200 would be a conservative number then. RIMM was in the $160s prior to their previous quarter's earnings and immediately blew thru $200 to something like $230 in the next few days before the split. Will history repeat itself in the form of Aapl?