I'm reading this board, but so many different opinions that I'm lost now...
I bought 630 AAPL stocks @ 202.91 (please don't tell me I'm stupid, I know I probably made a big mistake). Now I've lost US$14,400.25... :-(
My plan was to hold it till the MacWorld Expo and to sell it next day on the news and than maybe to buy before the earnings announcement if it slips a little after the MacWorld.
Now I'm reading all the news about the rate cuts, oil prices, etc. and I'm lost. I don't know what to do, to sell it now and to stay with a loss of US$14,400.25 or to consider this price as a good entry point for investing a 100k more in AAPL on Monday and wait till the MacWorld?
I will appreciate any clever advise.
Look at a 10 year chart of AAPL.
print it out
leave the dollar amounts showing, and cover the dates.
Ask the "Recession Experts". using only the Apple chart, to show you where the recessions have been over the last 10 years.
For extra Credit, they can label hi and low points of :
-prime interest rate
-where presidents were Dem or Rep
-existing home sales
- trade defecit
- any other bullshot report that everyone gets excited over (they got a new thing every week, you notice?)
Good luck to them!
I bought in at $143 in anticipation of the October earning announcement. The next day it dropped to $130. I know how you feel. Hang in there - I believe it will easily hit the $220 mark within the next 60 days. Expect extreme jumps and dips before hitting the $220 target. I am using this as a buying opportunity. Good luck.
1. Are you leveraged?
2. Do you need the money?
If you answered yes to either of these, get out now and learn to trade. If you answered no to both of them, perhaps just #1 ... heck ... just hold it. What does it matter? The worst thing that will happen is you will have to wait until the next bull market to get the money back. If you answered yes to number one and not number two ... the worst thing is that you just don't get the money back at all ... which you don't need.
No one can give you advice that will guarantee and ultimately you are the one who has to decide.
I work in the Wireless Industry and have worked closely with AT&T etc. When I read the iPhone stuff last MacWord i was said that this stock will be at $170 in 1 year (it was Mar 07 and the stock was at $85). Simply becuase, the i-phone estimates I saw was way less than the innovations on the phone. Plus, they released only EDGE version and just like RIMM they will keep releasing other versions and keep selling.
OK. So, long term AAPL will be great and looking at the potential you will be fine.
I only picked up 334 shares at $198 - yes, i stayed out when i knew that they would do well.
The Macro economics may not be so well for sometime. So, if you cannot keep it for at least 6 mths, i would say sell if it goes down below $176 - that is what i plan to do.
If we can escape this - then i may get out in the short term [ as i cut my losses]. With earnings it could be a $20 pop or a $40 downward movement [so, beacuase of the Macro event, i am not siding on a big upside).
What may change my mind is based on how AAPL decides to address some issues on the i-phone that stops it from competeing with RIMM:
(1) Corporate E-mail solution
(2) any better way to incorporate keyboard [while iphone keyboard is innovative, it can't beat the RIMM's physical keyboard for corp users].
(3) 3G plans [i hear Spring or summer 08]
(4) Larger Harddisk
While, MAC computers, i-tunes etc may be doing well, i think that the valuation can only benefit in a big way on how they capture wireless mobile market space.
So, my decisions to sell or hold based on the above may prove to be right or wrong but i believe in it. So, work it out and have your plan - the biggest mistake you can make (as i have made in 2000) is to HOPE!
best thing is to buy some insurance
buy some "puts"
to protect your down side
but be ready to sell the "puts" if AAPL turns around and goes up
AAPL is a great stock,
and this sell-off is not AAPL fault.
Its the policies of this disasterous adminstration in Washington
one other word---avg into a stock as it goes up....don't throw that much money in at one time