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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • pangbert pangbert Jan 22, 2008 5:23 PM Flag

    Another licking...big deal...don't be scared.

    Sorry for all that lost money, or the ones who feel uneasy about the current market enviroment. That AAPL is taking a hit in these days is as real and as expected as when it went from 110 to 150 in a few days.

    I am not happy about this, but I guess these ups and downs are part of the cycle. Let's not argue what went on because nobody really knows. We can place blame on the foregin markets or to the local subprime crisis or credit crisis. The deal is that AAPL is performing BETTER than EVER and yet the timing didn't work since it is being met with a totally negative and pessimistic expectations.

    One thing is clear though....say what you may, AAPL's performance has been stellar, whether looking at the price per share or looking at its sales and product developments. Don't take my work on it. Just look at the (still hot from the press) Earnings report. It beat expectations and IMPROVED 56% from a year ago. And yet the market conditions are simply not in tune with it.

    In After Hours, I can see AAPL is having a terrible time, but yet it simplty does not make sense. We got a one-year price target way over 200 dollars. People are blaming the AH drop on a weak forecast because it came lower than expected. But this does NOT MAKE SENSE EITHER....

    AAPL is the one who makes the stuff and sells it....they know better, they know what to expect. Analysts are puting trivial numbers and trashing AAPL when it posts lower than them. What are ANALysts expecting? For AAPL to have high expectations and come out SHORT next ER?

    If ANALysts know and see and talk about a bad market, about a resession, etc, etc...how is it possible that they would post expectations that would be AT PAR (that means equal...) to last years expectations (say Jan 2007) when the Current market conditions were just over the horizon? Aren't ANALysts expecting too much from AAPL? If SHORTS contantly are crying that AAPL won't see as much in a soft economy, how does it make sense for ANALysts to come out and expect a "normal" performance in terms of FORECAST? Also keep in mind that lately, AAPL has shattered expectations every single time...so it would not be surprising that AAPL's actual numbers were actually higher than the ANALysts original numbers....

    I have always said that ANALysts don't know any better than we do here (assuming we all do out own research)....if they did, instead of punishing a MONEY MAKING company like AAPL, they should have put on a SELL signal for MONEY LOSING companies like Citibank, Merril Lynch, or Allied Capital....but no...we didn't hear form them did we...because that would mean that knew better than us.

    IGNORE THE NEWS these following weeks....don't allow youself to be scared off your AAPL shares or from your portfolio in general.

    It is never bad to take gains...there is no shame on selling at less the profit...the point is to sell at a profit.

    In my case, I was holding AAPL in 1999, AAPL not only went south on me, but went NEGATIVE for a couple of years...If I could hold then, I surely can hold NOW.

    Cheers....

    r.

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    • Easy for you to say, asshole, you've already made your money if you were smart enough to sell some along the way.

      But for newer investors, this is a disaster.

      But then again, you're nothing but a greedy phucker who could care less about any other shareholder.

      What an asswipe.

      • 1 Reply to nozupforyou
      • wha....didn't I apologized at the start of the post?

        Regadless, I did not mean to make fun of anything or take away importance to what has happen here.

        Don't call me names just for the sake of it...why am I greedy? What is the ultimate objective in investing?

        If one sells out of fear, then the choices for blame are quite limited.

        If one bought stock at margin and was forced to cover...again, the choices for blame are limited.

        My intention here was to simply put things into perspective and try to help new investors (and all longs) to not be scared out of their AAPL shares. Long (and I) are not the ones who come here and post lies about AAPL, about how Steve J. is going to jail, or how iPod/iPhone will be recalled or who AAPL missied guidance. Neither am I the one who tells people that this is a sure thing going to 240 after ER....or that a buyback program will be announced.

        Personal responsibility is something we need to learn along the way...not only in stocks, but in mortgages, credit cards, jobs, etc....nobody forced me to buy Palm or Lucent...and yet here I stand taking the hits.

        Cheers.


        r.

    • ................

    • >>bump<<

    • Two thumb up! I am not an expert in term of financial, apple counts for 11% of QQQQ, individual investors are selling in panic mood because they read the news and they want to get out before it gets worse, but eventually AAPL will go up, maybe not in 200s soon, but I don't see much room to go south in long run.

    • Hey Pangbert -

      Good post.

      One thing which your analysis seems to me to overlook is that the analysts are used as much as the investors: either they give their honest analysis, which most of the time gets buried (except when it serves managements' purposes), or they play the game knowingly, feeding the management the numbers they want.

      My opinion of analysts is that they are either naive, or complicit. I almost never believe that they believe what they say, or recommend.

      Analysts are, by and large, pawns. They do what they're told. Only a very select few call things so correctly that they earn a reputation which out-powers their bosses directives. Of course, when they achieve such stature, the "bosses" have already made mucho de niro off them.

      I still look at that $18.4B in cash, which translates to $21 per share, which when subtracted from the share price (of $138 or so, now) leaves a pps of $117, which given $4.55 in earnings yields a PE (ttm) of 25.7. The forward PE is obviously much lower.

      The extremes which this market is attaining are getting more and more extreme. At some point, something will give.

      As a fellow long, I hope it's not we.

      Regards,

      emeraldstar

      • 1 Reply to emerald3star
      • well, yeah something will have to give.

        Keep in mind also that in bad markets like these, many times managers and investors will liquidate good investments (like AAPL) in order to cover and inject life support to their money LOSING investments. This makes sense(kind of...) to lock in gains and to delay any losses.

        One thing we have to have clear here, is the fact that AAPL's stock performance is not reflecting on its sales performance.

        What shorts and bashers contend is all FALSE...they are trying to peg AAPL's stock performance to a lack of sales or to bad products...but that is simply NOT TRUE.

        Today's ER reported more macs than ever before sold...and it looks pretty good going forward...how is that bad news?

        Let's get the iPhone to Asia and Latin America and see what that does to ANALysts expectations.

        r.

    • great post I support.. althought i dont' own appl at the moment but i agree

    • you're fuked...back to reality...

    • I totally agree with everything you said. I remember the stock tanked last year after the quarter announcement (after I had increased my position at 97 and 91). That hurt, but eventually the essentials brought the price up to where it is now.

      Hey, even 140 looks good from 91.

      But it is crazy.

 
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