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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • liveup40 liveup40 Jan 12, 2011 7:17 PM Flag

    In the next 6 trading days, 2 option expirations and an earnings report

    With all the call activity around the strike and market makers more than likely being the largest seller of those options, can they afford to allow AAPL to go up????

    Just think how much money is bet on AAPL going higher in the next 6 days and in most cases, the other side of that be is the house.....

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    • Most of the time the MM selling the calls have to buy the stock for protection which could be the reason for the steady rise into ER. This is why I will not hold my monthly 340's through Friday. I could miss some upside due to ER, but the loss of I.V. and risk isnt worth it.

      This will probably be the ER that AAPl pops $50 since I wont have a position going into the earnings... :D

      • 4 Replies to chalkdusttourture
      • I think you have to look at two things:

        1) What is your risk profile.

        2) What are your +/-'s for earnings - i.e. if everything looks positive then why not gamble at last something on earnings?

        You gotta figure you gamble on this stock every day, why sit out earnings unless you are simply clueless about the direction it will take.

      • I sold my 25 Feb 330 calls on monday too. I am out now (I made a nice 65% gain which should offset some other losses I took and am really happy - although I was nervous)- I am hoping to buy some Apr 350 calls after ER next week but knowing it could also pop.

        There will be an earnings blowout like always. I'm wondering if this has already been factored in, and drops 1-2 days after ER.

        @appltradr @retire and others here are the only sane, good and logical voices on this forum and a pleasure to read your posts.

        best

      • chalkdust- I hope it pops $50, that'd be great. Honestly, you are doing the smart thing by selling, I'm being greedy & possibly gonna pay for it. But I like taking risks. Anyway, risk/reward is probably +20/-5, I like those odds.

    • The same could be said about aapl going into almost every earnings report the last 3 years- lots of call activity, & yet aapl goes higher after amost every earnings report. Before you say that was b4 weeklies, please consider that almost all the volume is in the monthlies. Weeklies make up a very small % of total volume. I've been posting for months that I think aapl closes on the 18th at $345 & the 19th at $365. So far so good, I'm sticking with that target. Good luck to all.

      • 1 Reply to retirefilthyrich
      • Retire -- you are right on plan. I keep getting cold feet. Sold my calls on Monday to lock in gains. Bought back yesterday on the dip. Sold today as I was up $10k from yesterday.

        I was hoping for a little pullback tomorrow as overall market has been up a lot and maybe a weak jobs report. Intel earnings after hours expected to be strong - should give tech a boost on Friday.

        I heard on CNBC - Fast Money today someone talking about buying calls on the XLK (tech ETF) since Intel, Apple, Google, and a couple other big techs all report over the next week. I need to look into that trade tonight.

        Glad to see you are doing well on your calls.

 
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