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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • roga_the_shrubba roga_the_shrubba Oct 19, 2012 8:09 PM Flag

    10 Reasons Why AAPL Is Tanking:

    1. Ambiguous iPhone 5 Sales. VZ says they activated 650K. Did they sell that many or only activate that many? Jeffries believes they only activated that many and reduced their Q4 forecast to 5 million. That won't support stock price.

    2. Quality issues. First it was Mapplegate, PurpleHazeGate, Scratchgate. Apple is known for quality. It seems to be slipping.

    3. New phones have no "wow" factor. iPhone 4 used Siri as a gimmick which is now considered a joke. iPhone 5 is a nicer version of a Galaxy 3. Innovation seems to be on hiatus.

    4. Supply Issues. Since Tim Cook is supposed to be supply side genius, why is Apple always running out? You cant sell what you don't have. McDonalds always has enough cheeseburgers.

    5. According to Gene Munster, iPad mini will cannibalize up to 20% of new iPad and iPod Touch sales. Not good for margins.

    6. Android is gaining not only huge domestic market share, but emerging market share as well. Android phones are cheaper and will sell to the masses.

    7. Amazon competition has heated up. Bezos is playing for keeps. New Fires are very nice and some analysts are saying even better than new iPad. Check out the specs. They are being sold at a price point that Apple won't be able to match without drastically affecting margins. Amazon's ecosystem is web based, clean and ease to navigate. iTunes is old, bloated, confusing, and boring.

    8. The street fears that since Steve Jobs departure there will be no "next thing". He may have had 5 yrs in the pipeline but that pipeline changes real fast.

    9. MIA iTV. Gene Munster and others have been pumping an iTV for months. This was priced in to a certain degree. Seems as if Samsung has beaten Apple to the punch with this.

    10. Law of Large Numbers. What is on the horizon once iPhones and iPads are commodities?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Nostalgia bump

    • Was I right or was I right?

    • you have a couple of valid points but wrong on the IOS and the mini iPad is only shipping a wifi version with the 3G coming in the next few weeks: "While Android pulled further ahead of Apple's iOS, its gains have come mainly at the expense of rival operating systems Blackberry and Symbian.. Apple's share of the market increased to 14.9 percent during the third quarter, from 13.8 percent a year earlier" ... we have not seen a full quarter of sales yet on the iPhone 5 until they report in January (and I bet the holiday season will be a blowout quarter for Apple). So I would wait and see what the numbers are at that time before pronouncing the death of Apple. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/02/us-android-share-idUSBRE8A11A820121102

      Sentiment: Buy

    • tdhillon@ymail.com tdhillon Nov 2, 2012 8:03 PM Flag

      You are missing two points.

      There is no competition to apple.
      Apple has hardware as well as software.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Addendum: Earnings miss was 3rd out of last 5 reports, lowered guidance for next quarter, recent management shakeup raises questions and uncertainty, iPad mini sales look to be lighter than expected, stock looks technically broken.

    • hen sell and walk away! why waste so much time posting this, move onto another trade..simple buddy.

    • My gf has 4S, bought the 5 and didn't think it was worth it. She sold on eBay. I think what's not sold in Q3 will be made up in Q4 though.

    • OK Lets really re-address each concern:

      1. Ambiguous iPhone 5 Sales. VZ says they activated 650K. Did they sell that many or only activate that many? Jeffries believes they only activated that many and reduced their Q4 forecast to 5 million. That won't support stock price.

      ** Verizon also reported record activations of 4s and 4s. Forgot to mention that point.

      ## Yes but it's the iPhone 5 that is supposed to carry the weight going forward. Is it overwhelming demand, or miss-managed supply chain? If overwhelming demand, that should have been known by Cook. If miss-managed supply chain, need I say more?

      *** Yes and do you really think that the number reported by VZ are going forward? Thats the point they sold 5 million on the first day. VZ number represent what they sold at the end of 3rd QTR. Hmmm....

      2. Quality issues. First it was Mapplegate, PurpleHazeGate, Scratchgate. Apple is known for quality. It seems to be slipping.

      ** Lets see... remember antenna gate, ipad charge problems, etc... Everything you mention above is are not fundamental technological problems that will not be overcome. Scratchgate, really? Just put on a case if that really matter to you. In fact, more people put on cases not to protect but to individualize their phone.

      ## Collectively they portend a quality problem. Apple always produced high quality products. Quality seems to be eroding.

      *** Still the best quality product compared to its competitors. But once again very addressable and no product launch ever goes without problems. Point is that we have seen this before but grasping at straws to think this will slow their growth.

      3. New phones have no "wow" factor. iPhone 4 used Siri as a gimmick which is now considered a joke. iPhone 5 is a nicer version of a Galaxy 3. Innovation seems to be on hiatus.

      ** Still the best phone on the market and Siri will only improve over time.

      ## Agree on both points. Still no wow factor.

      *** 5 million people on the first day would probably argue differently. :)

      4. Supply Issues. Since Tim Cook is supposed to be supply side genius, why is Apple always running out? You cant sell what you don't have. McDonalds always has enough cheeseburgers.

      ** Short term issue which creates a buying opportunity for investors that can see past 1 QTR.

      ## Should never be an issue even if short term. Again, you can't sell what you don't have.

      **** OK but only if they will not be able to increase supply. NOT likely so yes it is a short term issue.

      5. According to Gene Munster, iPad mini will cannibalize up to 20% of new iPad and iPod Touch sales. Not good for margins.

      ** iPad mini will be incremental not cannibalistic. Sure they may loose iPad sales but they will also take a significant portion of the Amazon, Nook and other sales that will far out weigh any sales loss in the iPad. Also the feature set of the mini will still differentiate from the iPad but will be much better than the competitors. Also, don't forget they get the apple interface and apps market.

      ## If they lose ANY new iPad sales it will be cannibalistic. In order to be competitive with Amazon they cannot sustain current margins.

      **** Once again missing the point. I did say they may loose some sales but not overall. So if you want to argue semantics about the definition of canabilistic sure... but if you can't see why it doesn't matter then you are ignoring the fact that they grow and address a market segment that is growing. Also, yes they can maintain there margins. If you look at tear down studies of the iPad 3 and count for a smaller form factor with some less expensive features they can compete without a problem while maintaining margins.

      **** iPad mine will probably be part of the iTV strategy. I perfect interface for all HD TV's out their linked to the cloud and perhaps a small set top box. Finally a remote control that will work with every imaginable third party set top box, reciever, dvr, etc. That gets updated continuously. How much time do iPad owners spend on the iPad when they are in front of the TV? Also, imaging pausing the tv and sending picture or other things you might want to show to others.

      ## Interesting but hopefully they won't get bogged down with selling actual TV's.

      **** Nice try but that is the point. They don't have to sell any TV's. The TV industry continues to innovate and push their development and low margins. Apple rides the wave with a innovative, elegant solution. Enabled by the cloud, brings in potential for social media, tagging of content, instantaneous feedback, etc. Also, think about the content plays here just like they did with the music industry. (Huge!)

      6. Android is gaining not only huge domestic market share, but emerging market share as well. Android phones are cheaper and will sell to the masses.

      *** Markets will always segment but it's a growing market. Apple will continue to seize the high margin opportunities.

      ## Agree but a lot of emerging market sales are priced in. These may not be as big as some expect. Android is devouring market share with lower priced phones.

      7. Amazon competition has heated up. Bezos is playing for keeps. New Fires are very nice and some analysts are saying even better than new iPad. Check out the specs. They are being sold at a price point that Apple won't be able to match without drastically affecting margins. Amazon's ecosystem is web based, clean and ease to navigate. iTunes is old, bloated, confusing, and boring.

      ***Just plain wrong on so many levels.

      ## Seems correct on every level.

      8. The street fears that since Steve Jobs departure there will be no "next thing". He may have had 5 yrs in the pipeline but that pipeline changes real fast.

      ** Not likely for at least 2 more years.

      ## Perhaps but since nothing is defined, it is unknown what is out there. What are the future catalysts.

      9. MIA iTV. Gene Munster and others have been pumping an iTV for months. This was priced in to a certain degree. Seems as if Samsung has beaten Apple to the punch with this.

      ** See above

      ## Trying to sell actual TV's will be Cooks "Waterloo"

      **** Made my point above. No TV required.

      10. Law of Large Numbers. What is on the horizon once iPhones and iPads are commodities?

      *** Really is that all you got?

      ## Again, what are the future catalysts that will sustain current levels?

      **** Everything above and probably more than you or I can imagine.

    • OK Lets really address each concern:

      1. Ambiguous iPhone 5 Sales. VZ says they activated 650K. Did they sell that many or only activate that many? Jeffries believes they only activated that many and reduced their Q4 forecast to 5 million. That won't support stock price.

      ** Verizon also reported record activations of 4s and 4s. Forgot to mention that point.

      2. Quality issues. First it was Mapplegate, PurpleHazeGate, Scratchgate. Apple is known for quality. It seems to be slipping.

      ** Lets see... remember antenna gate, ipad charge problems, etc... Everything you mention above is are not fundamental technological problems that will not be overcome. Scratchgate, really? Just put on a case if that really matter to you. In fact, more people put on cases not to protect but to individualize their phone.

      3. New phones have no "wow" factor. iPhone 4 used Siri as a gimmick which is now considered a joke. iPhone 5 is a nicer version of a Galaxy 3. Innovation seems to be on hiatus.

      ** Still the best phone on the market and Siri will only improve over time.

      4. Supply Issues. Since Tim Cook is supposed to be supply side genius, why is Apple always running out? You cant sell what you don't have. McDonalds always has enough cheeseburgers.

      ** Short term issue which creates a buying opportunity for investors that can see past 1 QTR.

      5. According to Gene Munster, iPad mini will cannibalize up to 20% of new iPad and iPod Touch sales. Not good for margins.

      ** iPad mini will be incremental not cannibalistic. Sure they may loose iPad sales but they will also take a significant portion of the Amazon, Nook and other sales that will far out weigh any sales loss in the iPad. Also the feature set of the mini will still differentiate from the iPad but will be much better than the competitors. Also, don't forget they get the apple interface and apps market.

      **** iPad mine will probably be part of the iTV strategy. I perfect interface for all HD TV's out their linked to the cloud and perhaps a small set top box. Finally a remote control that will work with every imaginable third party set top box, reciever, dvr, etc. That gets updated continuously. How much time do iPad owners spend on the iPad when they are in front of the TV? Also, imaging pausing the tv and sending picture or other things you might want to show to others.

      6. Android is gaining not only huge domestic market share, but emerging market share as well. Android phones are cheaper and will sell to the masses.

      *** Markets will always segment but it's a growing market. Apple will continue to seize the high margin opportunities.

      7. Amazon competition has heated up. Bezos is playing for keeps. New Fires are very nice and some analysts are saying even better than new iPad. Check out the specs. They are being sold at a price point that Apple won't be able to match without drastically affecting margins. Amazon's ecosystem is web based, clean and ease to navigate. iTunes is old, bloated, confusing, and boring.

      ***Just plain wrong on so many levels.

      8. The street fears that since Steve Jobs departure there will be no "next thing". He may have had 5 yrs in the pipeline but that pipeline changes real fast.

      ** Not likely for at least 2 more years.

      9. MIA iTV. Gene Munster and others have been pumping an iTV for months. This was priced in to a certain degree. Seems as if Samsung has beaten Apple to the punch with this.

      ** See above

      10. Law of Large Numbers. What is on the horizon once iPhones and iPads are commodities?

      *** Really is that all you got?

      • 2 Replies to cubano67
      • OK Lets really re-address each concern:

        1. Ambiguous iPhone 5 Sales. VZ says they activated 650K. Did they sell that many or only activate that many? Jeffries believes they only activated that many and reduced their Q4 forecast to 5 million. That won't support stock price.

        ** Verizon also reported record activations of 4s and 4s. Forgot to mention that point.

        ## Yes but it's the iPhone 5 that is supposed to carry the weight going forward. Is it overwhelming demand, or miss-managed supply chain? If overwhelming demand, that should have been known by Cook. If miss-managed supply chain, need I say more?

        2. Quality issues. First it was Mapplegate, PurpleHazeGate, Scratchgate. Apple is known for quality. It seems to be slipping.

        ** Lets see... remember antenna gate, ipad charge problems, etc... Everything you mention above is are not fundamental technological problems that will not be overcome. Scratchgate, really? Just put on a case if that really matter to you. In fact, more people put on cases not to protect but to individualize their phone.

        ## Collectively they portend a quality problem. Apple always produced high quality products. Quality seems to be eroding.

        3. New phones have no "wow" factor. iPhone 4 used Siri as a gimmick which is now considered a joke. iPhone 5 is a nicer version of a Galaxy 3. Innovation seems to be on hiatus.

        ** Still the best phone on the market and Siri will only improve over time.

        ## Agree on both points. Still no wow factor.

        4. Supply Issues. Since Tim Cook is supposed to be supply side genius, why is Apple always running out? You cant sell what you don't have. McDonalds always has enough cheeseburgers.

        ** Short term issue which creates a buying opportunity for investors that can see past 1 QTR.

        ## Should never be an issue even if short term. Again, you can't sell what you don't have.

        5. According to Gene Munster, iPad mini will cannibalize up to 20% of new iPad and iPod Touch sales. Not good for margins.

        ** iPad mini will be incremental not cannibalistic. Sure they may loose iPad sales but they will also take a significant portion of the Amazon, Nook and other sales that will far out weigh any sales loss in the iPad. Also the feature set of the mini will still differentiate from the iPad but will be much better than the competitors. Also, don't forget they get the apple interface and apps market.

        ## If they lose ANY new iPad sales it will be cannibalistic. In order to be competitive with Amazon they cannot sustain current margins.

        **** iPad mine will probably be part of the iTV strategy. I perfect interface for all HD TV's out their linked to the cloud and perhaps a small set top box. Finally a remote control that will work with every imaginable third party set top box, reciever, dvr, etc. That gets updated continuously. How much time do iPad owners spend on the iPad when they are in front of the TV? Also, imaging pausing the tv and sending picture or other things you might want to show to others.

        ## Interesting but hopefully they won't get bogged down with selling actual TV's.

        6. Android is gaining not only huge domestic market share, but emerging market share as well. Android phones are cheaper and will sell to the masses.

        *** Markets will always segment but it's a growing market. Apple will continue to seize the high margin opportunities.

        ## Agree but a lot of emerging market sales are priced in. These may not be as big as some expect. Android is devouring market share with lower priced phones.

        7. Amazon competition has heated up. Bezos is playing for keeps. New Fires are very nice and some analysts are saying even better than new iPad. Check out the specs. They are being sold at a price point that Apple won't be able to match without drastically affecting margins. Amazon's ecosystem is web based, clean and ease to navigate. iTunes is old, bloated, confusing, and boring.

        ***Just plain wrong on so many levels.

        ## Seems correct on every level.

        8. The street fears that since Steve Jobs departure there will be no "next thing". He may have had 5 yrs in the pipeline but that pipeline changes real fast.

        ** Not likely for at least 2 more years.

        ## Perhaps but since nothing is defined, it is unknown what is out there. What are the future catalysts.

        9. MIA iTV. Gene Munster and others have been pumping an iTV for months. This was priced in to a certain degree. Seems as if Samsung has beaten Apple to the punch with this.

        ** See above

        ## Trying to sell actual TV's will be Cooks "Waterloo"


        10. Law of Large Numbers. What is on the horizon once iPhones and iPads are commodities?

        *** Really is that all you got?

        ## Again, what are the future catalysts that will sustain current levels?

    • 5. According to Gene Munster, iPad mini will cannibalize up to 20% of new iPad and iPod Touch sales. Not good for margins.

      Apple may discontinue iPad2 after the mini is released. Makes sense not to have so many generations of the same device.

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