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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • brad_wilkinson Oct 20, 2012 5:48 AM Flag

    Serious Discussion and I hate asking this question as a long, But?

    Serious Discussion and I hate asking this question as a long, But? Is it possible that the DEMAND for the I5 is not that strong? I want to explore this because their have been some odd things Ive read, for example, The I5 isn't trending that well in online searches, and that apple has lost some of its "social capital", some research paper I read. I realize the DEMAND to try and get one is strong(supply issues), but is the phone really selling that well or is it just hard to get?
    I hope the answer is the demand is strong because the phone is a winner, and will continue to be strong throughout Christmas and beyond.. Im holding a ton of shares and taking a beating of well over 100k... Appreciate real thoughts on this?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Brad, I feel your pain. I have been a long-time Apple holder and have seen these painful roller coaster rides. If you study a chart of Apple of the last several years, you will see that it has had a significant correction about 10 times. Each and every time it appeared that the world was imploding around Apple, and each time it rallied back to a newer, higher high. Of course past performance is not always the surest predictor of future results. However, unless something is really wrong with Apple or its products, and I do not see that now, its a normal correction. With the move into a mini-Ipad and the faster roll out of the Iphone 5 around the world, Apple is telling us that under Tim Cook they are going to get more aggressive in the consumer market place and not let its competitors take away a market from Apple. So, painful as it is, I would just hold on.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • No judgments til Tuesday.

    • "is the phone really selling that well or is it just hard to get?"
      I would say yes to both. Demand is high but supply is a little tight right now. Seriously look into buying some puts to protect against further downward movement.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Brad, take a look at the Post by Opt_Trdr that I bumped up from last nite. He summarizes yesterday's Opex over the Leaps very well.

    • apple_millionaire_twice_over apple_millionaire_twice_over Oct 20, 2012 8:25 AM Flag

      all we know is that they shipped 5 million in 3 days and that's all they had available. You have to believe they could have sold at least 6 to 7 million minimum had there been enough supply. Even at just 6 million that's a 50% increase over iphone 4s. They sold 37 million last holiday. 37x1.5 = 55 million phones this holiday. Not too shabby.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • We will have answers in a few days. I have held and accumulated since 2007 and each time the stock achieves a high and retreats it returns to surpass that previous high. We should rebound and resume the growth curve within the next few weeks. Patience.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • brad this stock is sick u cant tell me im wrong something is wrong 4 weeks on a hugh decline u better hope that this will change this week

      • 2 Replies to giladpery
      • The stock is down on absolutly no reasons, those kind of declines are the perfect buying opportunity. Apple stores are still pack and Apple is about to release a new ipad just before the holidays. Sit down and think about it, apple is doing a refresh of its core business products just before Christmas, on top of its imac line and a new laptop.

        The december quarter is going to blow last year out of the water. We have a 14 PE stock with double digits yoy growth. Cant ask for anything better imo.

      • The whole market is in correction, particularly the tech sector. In addition, particular issues with aapl lately. This stock, like all stocks, goes in and out of favor by 'the market.' The longer term trend in not likely to change given all the longer term positives, that is, low valuation combined with continued products and services in demand and associated growth of sales/revenue.

    • brad_wilkinson Oct 20, 2012 7:07 AM Flag


      • 3 Replies to brad_wilkinson
      • old, wise saying: supply shortage= "high quality problem" often means demand has simply exceeded all expectations. so the question is really-- is supply enough for the expected demand? (not actual demand). if it is, then its NON ISSUE. if is isnt then it is temporary issue. Anyone want to try to answer if supply meets expected demand (not actual)?

      • brad_wilkinson Oct 20, 2012 8:54 AM Flag

        Great Feedback everyone!!!!

      • First, let me say this...the reality is NO ONE knows FOR SURE what the demand is for the iPhone 5 or what the sales growth potential for iPhones is in the coming years. Therein lies the risk associated with investing in aapl. All stock investing involves risk. However, IMO the risk is low for aapl investors for the following reasons related to the iPhone:

        1. The overall smartphone market is forecasted to at least double from 1b now to 2b in 2015. Year-over-year the smartphone market has grown 47%, globally. There will be tremendous growth in iPhone sales over the next three years on this metric alone.

        2. The lines of people at the launch and the pre-order response for the 5 are a big tells about demand.

        3. This is the fastest global launch ever for an iPhone by aapl...over 100 countries by the end of 2012.

        4. Read the various consumer surveys by analysts. Consumers' intent to buy an iPhone continues to grow, and is much great than the competition.

        Having said all that, aapl is apparently faced with manufacturing challenges for the 5. The question is by how much will these challenges constrain sales? Again, no one knows...yet. Regardless of the answer, I believe the manufacturing challenges are a short-term supply problem that will not impact demand long-term. Obviously, the market sees this differently at the moment. But, I believe over the next 6 months (probably much sooner) the manufacturing issues will be resolved and wait times for the 5 will drop below one week. Oh yeah, that includes the launch of the 5 with China Mobile, IMO.

        IMO stay patient while supply constraints are resolved, and use this pull back from $700 to accumulate. I believe by March 2013 this will be an $800 stock.

        Good luck longs!!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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