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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • aragre@sbcglobal.net aragre Nov 2, 2012 4:21 PM Flag

    For those who are paniced... Read these analysis based on guidance vs actual

    These are some analyses based on historical performance differentials and carrying them forward to q1 2013.

    Apple actual revenue q4 sept 2011. 28 bil

    Apple guidance for q1 jan 2012. 37 bil Eps 9.3. 1.32x28 bi, 25% net profit

    Apple actual results q1 jan 2012 46 bil Eps 13. 87 1.64x 28 bil, 1.25x 37 bil. 30% net

    Note net was higher by 20% relative to guidance

    Apple actual q4 sept 2012. 36 bil Eps 8.7

    Apple guidance for q1 2013. 52 bil Eps 11.75. 1.44x 36 bil. 22% net

    Note they bumped guidance by 9% for 2012 q1. Relative to q4 2o11

    Apples actual Q4 2011 to Q1 2012 guidance is 1.32 x
    Apples actual Q4 2012 to Q1 2012 guidance is 1.44 x
    That is 9% more or stronger guidance for 2013.

    Applying the above differentials between actual and guidance to q1 2013 we get the following potetial actuals:

    Apple actual for q1 jan 2013. 1.64 x 36= 59 bil. At 22% net eps 12.9, At 27%net eps 15.9
    1.25x 52= 65 bil. At 22% net eps14.3, At 27% net eps 17.5
    Factoring the 9% strength
    1.78x 36= 64 bil. At 22% net eps 14.0, At 27% net eps of 17.3
    1.36x 52= 70 bil. At 22% net eps 15.4, At 27% net eps of 18.9

    Present q2 q3 q4 trailing eps is.

    12.3 +9.32+ 8.7= 30.3

    Possible range of ttm eps in jan 2013

    30.3+ 11.75= 42.05. Apple guidance ( mind u we are already at ttm 44 .. Indication if the ridiculous apple conservatism)

    30.3+12.9= 43.2
    30.3+14= 44.3
    30.3+14.3=44.6
    30.3+15.4=45.7
    30.3+15.9=46.2
    30.3+17.3=47.6
    30.3+17.5=47.8
    30.3+18.9= 49.2

    Average eps from range is 46
    At Pe 15.
    We get pps 691

    High pps 738
    Low pps 645

    My bet is on 750 .. Given a bit of pe expantion due to improving margins after holiday quarter.
    And possible china mobile... Apple tv set or something along those lines... And larger 11 inch ipad addition to the lineup.

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