These are some analyses based on historical performance differentials and carrying them forward to q1 2013.
Apple actual revenue q4 sept 2011. 28 bil
Apple guidance for q1 jan 2012. 37 bil Eps 9.3. 1.32x28 bi, 25% net profit
Apple actual results q1 jan 2012 46 bil Eps 13. 87 1.64x 28 bil, 1.25x 37 bil. 30% net
Note net was higher by 20% relative to guidance
Apple actual q4 sept 2012. 36 bil Eps 8.7
Apple guidance for q1 2013. 52 bil Eps 11.75. 1.44x 36 bil. 22% net
Note they bumped guidance by 9% for 2012 q1. Relative to q4 2o11
Apples actual Q4 2011 to Q1 2012 guidance is 1.32 x
Apples actual Q4 2012 to Q1 2012 guidance is 1.44 x
That is 9% more or stronger guidance for 2013.
Applying the above differentials between actual and guidance to q1 2013 we get the following potetial actuals:
Apple actual for q1 jan 2013. 1.64 x 36= 59 bil. At 22% net eps 12.9, At 27%net eps 15.9
1.25x 52= 65 bil. At 22% net eps14.3, At 27% net eps 17.5
Factoring the 9% strength
1.78x 36= 64 bil. At 22% net eps 14.0, At 27% net eps of 17.3
1.36x 52= 70 bil. At 22% net eps 15.4, At 27% net eps of 18.9
Present q2 q3 q4 trailing eps is.
12.3 +9.32+ 8.7= 30.3
Possible range of ttm eps in jan 2013
30.3+ 11.75= 42.05. Apple guidance ( mind u we are already at ttm 44 .. Indication if the ridiculous apple conservatism)
Average eps from range is 46
At Pe 15.
We get pps 691
High pps 738
Low pps 645
My bet is on 750 .. Given a bit of pe expantion due to improving margins after holiday quarter.
And possible china mobile... Apple tv set or something along those lines... And larger 11 inch ipad addition to the lineup.
That was until Microsoft and Nokia surfaced, now. all bets are off. Nokia cleans Apple's clock in emerging markets too with their low cost smartphones too. Apple wont be able to compete cause Apple doesnt know how to compete in low profit margin environments. Apple will be turned into applesauce, a sleepong titan has awoken.
For sure it is... But that is a constant that can be eliminated from this analysis.
The stock is always manipulated.. It was true for last qs as it is now... So does not really have a bearing on this calculations.
Look at what is happening now... No reason but manipulation through panic and negative buzz. So big boys can steal cheap stocks.
At the end fundamentals will overtake and the above,to me , will be the potential result.
A lot to read...but I agree. Every Apple launch is greeted by a mix of optimism and bashers. Although it's hard to grasp that at $600 per share, AAPL is a bargain. Eventually the fundamental will speak louder than the bashers.
I thought calling the "new iPad" the iPad was stupid...but it makes sense now. The 10" retina display iPad is Apple's big tablet (and best in class by far). The iPad mini, is just that...all the features of the new iPad (minus the retina display), only smaller. The mini is better than the iPad 2 in every way, so it's clear (to me) that the iPad 2 will be phased out. Leaving just the iPad and the iPad mini.
Despite some critism that the iPad mini is overpriced or not retina HD, it's obvious that the iPad mini is a premium tablet (35% larger display than the other 7" tablets)...super sleek...and worth the price. It's better than the iPad 2 in every way (including the display sharpness), yet the mini is $60 less than the iPad 2. From that perspective, the mini is underpriced.
By the time the iPhone 6 or iTV is released, AAPL will be (at least) $750 as you predict.
another thing to consider is right now the mini wifi is only available now with the 3G version coming out in the next few weeks, the sell off today is panic selling and big money moving the stock down as usual. In the next month we will see buyers come in strong in anticipation of huge holidays sells and a blowout quarter ... 750 by end of Dec.