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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Message Board

  • sleeper24711 sleeper24711 Nov 8, 2012 11:09 AM Flag

    Here's Some Numbers From Guidance to Guide You

    Last year they guided eps 9.30 and did 13.87
    This year guidance is 11.75 which is 2.45 higher.
    If they thought there was any chance that they wouldn't do 13.87 like last year they wouldn't have guided 11.75. Moreover, they are presently more weary of Europe, the global economy in general, as they stated last earnings of its impact, and they were fully aware of supply constraint issues.

    Apple understands they lost share to Samsung last Q due to aggressive pricing, marketing and their own supply constraints especially on iphone5. Would they be worrried that this continues this Q? They addressed the ipad issue with the mini. iphone5 is in high demand as numbers reflect last Q and this Q. The smartphone market is still growing and with a high end product Apple does not have to grab increasing share to do well. It's up to them as they do cost/benefit analysis regarding margins, pricing, and market share, how they best grow eps.It was inevitable that Apple eventually lost growth momentum but given the brand and qualtiy moat they will still achieve steady growth in the teens for at least the next few years.

    11.75-9.3= 2.45 higher guidance yoy added to 11.75= 14.20
    extra week last year reduces 13.87 to X 13/14 weeks = 12.88
    That's a 10.25% Yoy increase. and based on lower gross margins than normal due to the multiple new product launches and which will improve the following quarters resultilng in higher than 10.25% growth going forward. Given the extra conservative guidance, I expect at least a bit better than 14.20 this Q and strong iphone5 demand will be reflected in results this Q or in upside guidance for next Q, depending on supply issues which will have been sorted out by this time.

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    • 500 is looking more like it more and more each day. There is really no justification for this I am afraid, other than an orchestrated plan for big money to ride this back up and maximize profits. The small investor doesn't have a chance anymore playing with these guys. I feel sorry for those people who bought in listening to all the hype and analysts predictions about apple and are now wondering what to do, seeing what little money they probably had to begin with evaporate. The rich get richer and the middle and poor get poorer.... nothing has changed and it won't. Electing Obama is not going to stop this crookedness all it did was give the bears control now. If Romney would have got in then the market would have moved up...... It is a strategic play that most small investors were not aware of. Wall street was not happy about Obama getting re-elected and yesterdays ridiculous sell - off shows this. However I guarantee that large firms made money yesterday shorting...... I predict this trend will continue for some time. A slow bleeding is in place now and any bit of negative world news is going to drop the market more. Hard to believe, but we may be on our way to testing 12500 Dow or even lower. Hang in there people its going to be a long ride.... GLTA

    • It's psychological now, not fundamental. Not even really technical, all emotion....

    • and the street still will punish this stock and PE will be under 10 while amazon will be 270. real scam.

      • 1 Reply to cincinatikid99
      • scropos21@sbcglobal.net scropos21 Nov 8, 2012 11:21 AM Flag

        They're going to report $20+ for the quarter. My model was $23.69, but with the extra hit on margins, *if* they occur, drops it to about $21.75. Listen, folks, they'll move 45 million iPhone 5's and at least 15 million 4's and 4S's. Look for a bare minimum of 60 million total iPhones sold. iPads? I'm thinking 18-20 million 4th generation and 11 million minis, for a total of about 30 million. People have NO idea what kind of monstrous earnings Apple is lining up. I sure hope the company kicks in their 2013 buyback right after the first of the year and snags 5-6 million shares before they report. This will be a $750-$800 stock by next summer.

 
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