First, a good deal of the current headwinds are now related to year-end profit taking. With the fiscal cliff leaving capital gains taxes in flux, people are locking their money up. But, that isnt to say those investors will not return. I myself took some profits at $571 yesterday, but will definitely return in once this turns around heading into the new year. I still hold half my stake.
Second, from a fundamental perspective, this is getting nuts. The recent decline has almost completely erased the news that an actual Iphone 5 is on the market, selling as fast as it could be made. While I understand the supply issues are a problem, a potentiall big problem, it is a temporary fix. Moreover, they are still selling a lot of phones. Looking at the multiple on this stock, considering even high teen growth, 10x earnings is cheap. Add in cash, and its really cheap.
Third, for anyone saying Apple lost their luster. They are dead wrong. 3 million Ipad mini's in 3 days is huge. Moreover, that product will continue to be a top seller for the holidays.
Fourth, two headlines to tackle. The first is Samsung being the top seller in the world. The fact is, Samsung's new phone barely outsold a year old Iphone model (4S), and a two year old 4. Let's see what they do in the coming quarters. And lastly, people talking about tablet market share declines are idiots. Apple invented the tablet and had damn near 95% market share. There is nowhere to go but down. So people screaming that from the mountain tops are nuts.
Here's the deal, in the low $500's, the fact remains the stock overshoots the downside in the same manner it overshot the upside at $700. When the pure fundamentals of the stock have a major disconnect from the stock's price, here lies the buying opportunity. Moreover, its comical to me that people have forgot about Iphone 5. It is selling in droves, they need to address supply and get it right.
Let's not forget while supply is an issue, the company knows that. Hence the lower guidance on the earnings call to the $11.60 level. Maybe know the sell-side will see the writing on the wall and keep their estimates near this figure.
aapl will be testing 500 early next week, it will overshoot as you say, probably to 485 before rebounding...hopefully, the market may have it in mind to take it lower, it is seeing competition with samsung, goog and amzn now
Competition is fine.... Is Mercedes out of business because Audi sells luxury cars? There are going to be 1.2 BILLION smartphone users in the world in a few years. Even if Apple takes a portion of that, they are loaded at these fundamentals. Separately, let's turn the microscope on Samsung for a second. What have they innovated? Their original Galaxy phones were a direct knock off of the Iphone. Even if they win in court, everyone knows that. Next, they just came out with a phone with a damn stylist, a pen. Something that was brought to the market in the 90's!!!! What grown adult draws on their photos. Its terrible. And when Apple makes a bigger screen, its not innovative, Samsung, it is. Double standard for these companies.
Those holding long term will do just fine, but most don't have the fortitude[guts]to last that long and as they see Apple down 25% in the last few months and with the upcoming Fiscal Cliff where knowledgeable insiders KNOW the Demos and Reps NEVER play nice...expect ALL stocks and Wall St to take a big bath, maybe 20-30% from todays postings...:-(
Those smart enough to take some profits or diminish their losses will be very happy they didn't lose more than they have.
hint: guys like Cramer, CNBC analysts, Wall St are NOT your pals, they are mostly liars and speculators..pump n dump'rs...be wary..
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Yes, the smart money will take profits. But new money, or previous holders of this stock with no capital gain on the table, will see an opportunity. Are you telling me every stock in the world is going to die because of the fiscal cliff. Really? Come on. As for Cramer, he's awesome, but a clown too. He said the stock was a "strong buy" LAST week, literally during the hurricane. This week, strong sell. He's an entertainer. It's like getting scared that Hulk Hogan's head is bleeding in the ring. It's not, it will be fine.
and for the record, a company with Apple's earnings power is not a "dead duck."' Maybe the stock will be range bound for some time, but 3 million in 3 days is not a dead duck. RIMM, is a dead duck
It might be a opportunity to short. Although the risk/reward for the short community, in my opinion, is not as stable as the past. They say "don't fight the tape" which for all intents and purposes is true. I sold some yesterday to lock in profits. But the fraze only last so long. Sooner or later fundamentals and company performance matter. We are talking about a company potentially set to earn $11 to $12 next quarter folks. Not cents, dollars. Short at will, you might make some near-term money.
No one is pumping Apple. Actually, my post is rather realistic. I admit supply issues. I also admit that I too have sold some shares. And by the way, I take that as a compliment when my post is compared to an article, versus the bashing #$%$ this message board is full of.
I do think Cook should better communicate the supply issues with the street. In essence let everyone know that they are pressing to improve these issues immediately, they are temporary problems, and Apple is using all of their muscle and money to square it up.
And I'm not saying there arent issues. Supply is a scary issue. But stocks are not meant to fall $150 points in a strait line, in the same way the pundits said it shouldnt have climbed in a strait line. At minimum, this thing needs to test resistance at the 200DMA of $585 near-term. Look at a candestick chart, its STRAIT down. A company of this quality should not trade like this. An opportunity is brewing folks. Maybe not today, but in the damn near-term.