Google Grundlach and porn and drugs and stealing and you'll get dozens of returns... but those are just realities and bfd about his lousy reputation.
CNBC recently hyped his $425 target like he was a genius on equities, but he is not close to that -- he's a risk oriented bond manager who ostensibly likes to party like a college guy. His "chart analysis" is on AAPL really flaky. His basic premise is that charts don't like to go vertical and usually round trip to that level, and further that this one did starting at $424.
Have a good look at a weekly chart over the last 2-3 years. AAPL rose from $424 alright, in tandem with revenues, earnings, ebitda and cash more than doubling without any debt. But vertical? No, more like hockey stick up.
Now, while it is a reality that many stocks go parabolic (again, AAPL did not) only to have Wall Street wake up to management fraud, a collapse in the business, superceding technology (e.g., AAPL's iPods quashing msft's Zune or stuffing the PC business) or just a strong cup of coffee and sudden realization that something being chased by the algo momentum guys really is not all that special (see TZOO's parabolic rise from $10 to well over $100 back to $20 and still nothing special to think about going forward), none of those things aaply to AAPL. Still, it is a reality that stocks (charts) don't like to go hard in any one direction for long unless there is something truly fundamentally broken with the story and that pullbacks -- the pause that refreshes -- is often healthy. With AAPL, all #$%$ aside, the reality is that NOTHING is broken on fundamentals and it is on the verge of really taking off on fundamentals.
AAPL has been the key winner in so many portfolios this year that it was the name to sell for redemptions, to offset losses on other portfolio assets, and easy to short to reduced net longs into this turbulence -- at the likely end of the AAPL drop, but there's more.
AAPL is also a huge part of the key indexes and, all fiscal cliff and EU and china and polarity #$%$ aside, it is also at the center performance benchmarks and also massively owned by hedge funds and mutual funds who can and do use many tools to press upside and hedge the downside, and that reality will remain part of the landscape from here forward. We are ok with that and everyone else long needs to grip that as well. More, for all those dynamics, AAPL will likely lead the dramatic upside reversal coming for the entire market once the idiots left and right start leaning toward the center and resolving the DC ensnarlment that is crippling progress.
The key point about AAPL and the "vertical" chart is this: as on the upside, charts don't like to drop in a vertical for long either, even when the FUNDAMENTAL story IS broken (again, it is not broken here). But have a good long look at what has happened. Last summer AAPL missed the consensus (not guidance) and "disappointed" on guidance and the stock dropped ~20% from $644 back to $522. Then along came the Minipad and early iPhone 5 announcement and the reversal launched the shares to $705 (where again mgmt let the street assume they would beat the old Steve pattern of WAY underguide and then smoke consensus (and WAY beat guidance)... but they beat guidance by only a little, missed the consensus, and then guided to 20% less than the street consensus for the current Q. All those pieces were plenty to start the current shakeout, especially into the teeth of the two prior paragraphs, but now the stock has been yanked down $1667 or 24%! (twenty-four percent!) and note that the slope of that decline is harder and sharper than what Grundlach called "vertical."
We enjoyed MKM's piece yesterday on the AAPL chart. As with other boutiques, they do lots of work for
the hedge fund community, so, they a finger on the pulse of PMs long and short and both. They also do some historically sound technical (chart) and quant work and think the mattress bottom of this now oversold pullback is around $550. We're going to see how good that is this week... but we share their views on "oversold" and "done" right about here.
Now let's see how much Obama wants to go down in history as (A) a President, like Clinton, who got a lot done in his second term by moving to the center, or (B) the most divisive, polarizing figure since Lincoln -- and also the one who was amongst the weakest and least effective in history -- right up there with Carter. Yeah, market and economy off to the races starting today? or Obama setting the stage for four more years of political stalemate, torpedoed economy and job growth, and sickeningly polaring rhetoric ala Krugman, Reid and Pelosi's advocacy. To be clear, we think the far right wingnuts are just as toxic on all of those counts.
On Grundlach and porn and drugs and stealing and there are dozens of returns... Here's just one from a year ago when his former employer was suing him.
By Mary Slosson
LOS ANGELES | Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:30pm EDT
(Reuters) - Evidence allegedly showing that star fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach kept a stash of drugs and porn in his office will not see the light of day at trial, a judge ruled in a lawsuit pitting Gundlach against his former employer.
More evidence related to Gundlach's alleged sexual liaisons with former co-workers also will not be allowed in the high-profile trial scheduled to begin next week between Gundlach and Trust Company of the West, a California judge ruled on Thursday.
TCW sued Gundlach, its former chief investment officer, in late 2009. The company Gundlach formed upon getting fired, DoubleLine Capital, used stolen proprietary data including contact databases to develop a client base, thereby engaging in "an ongoing pattern of wide-ranging, systematic unfair competition," TCW says in its complaint.
TCW is seeking in excess of $375 million in damages, according to Peter Viles, its corporate communications head.
Gundlach fired back with a countersuit, claiming that TCW owes him damages from his termination. He is seeking $500 million in damages, according to his defense team.
"Unrelated evidence" found in Gundlach's office would not be considered except under exceptional circumstances, said Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Carl J. West on Thursday.
"Collateral evidence will drag us down and take an untoward amount of time," West said, claiming that the extraneous evidence would be a distraction from the serious issues of fraud, proprietary theft, and damages stemming from Gundlach's termination.
Cramer's friends must be short again. The #$%$ just said aapl's last two q were awful. That is ludicrous... he has previously raved about the quarters save for conservative guidance. LOL
HJard to believe anyone still listens to anything he says..
Dave Faber just said they have already solved the U.S. supply problems, perhaps while light delivering to China.
This is almost over folks... panic in haste, repent at leisure.
squeezetracker-great post-best I've read in a long time-I agree spot on with your Apple analysis-and the part re: Gundlach!! tou'che-he's been exposed!! and we should take his advice??? forget it!! Slimeball #$%$-and CNBC has him on to give advice--for shame!!!!
The CNBC tools don't realize they are part of the manipulation game. They played that Grundlach piece at least 4x yesterday. If you read what i wrote, they should have me on there 10x today (I have said no thanks... but maybe Zaky can go and use my comments. LOL
This should be over soon. Cool heads should try to rise above their own pettiness and get it done for the country. AAPL will lead the charge higher.
As for the unhedged shorts? They should be asking themselves who is doing all the goobling up of these el cheapo shares? Think about it...
sgueezetracker-please do keep posting on this board !!! Had to re-read today's post a few times I appreciated it that much-Good insight as you contributed is hard to find around here !! I researched Gundlach a bit after your revealations -what a #$%$ slimeball he is (saw a list of some of the sex stuff he left behind in his office when he left) unreal-and CNBC glorifies people like that-shows what they're made of-same #$%$ !! Thanks again! Long and strong-Apple--new highs down the road-they will happen!
consumer confidence at 84% last month - before the recent drop. to keep the country looking at this optimistically -- critical for a recovery -- this positive outlook is to be protected by those elected.
Obama wants to be a hero.
Boehner doesn't want to be the putz.
Be ready for AAPL to RIP back to $550 and roar higher as the market leader from there.
Told yall educated posts do happen on yahoo finance from time to time. Thanks for the good info. This is helping me with my decision to hold on to my few remaining options at 595 and 600 with jan 13 exp. I thought I sold all of them and made a good profit but logged in next day to see I still had 5 total contracts left which isnt a ton of money but compared to where they were a week ago, you are talking 8K!
The path to enlightenment on AAPL...
the stage is set for a massive reversal now... all the hedgies net short will be goosing the upside with short hedges coming off and adding new long shares.
einhorn is often incredibly wrong, but he is right to be long (and likely pulling down all hedges now) on this story...
Sell those puts while you still have some value left! LOL