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  • aea_momentum1 aea_momentum1 Dec 8, 2012 9:47 AM Flag

    Up to now not many pepole really know the real problem of apple stock collapse and who's 100% faults ?

     

    and most important this be avoided but too late now do do any good so we would not tell you either, unless davidch14 want to know for the record

    This topic is deleted.
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    • Let went back to after aapl missed qts3 earning stock was down to 570-580 , TC was worry qts4 going to miss again without iplone5 then about 2 week after earning apple ltry to eak out it own rumor that phone5 going to release in late Sep and the was rumor 100% true , even he should be knew full well the I5 supplies problem at that time already , because a n a l y s t didn't knew that, so they keep on upgrade and move earnings est up thought I5 going to had 2 week big seIl for qts4, Then stock shooting up from 570 to 704 by the time iphone5 release everybody found out aapl made not enough and also missed qt4 earning again because a n a l y s t already move est up too high

      My point is Tim underestimate the demand when he already knew supplies had problems should wait 3 more week before release in qt1 when supplies problem can catching up and has enough (he not only release in US too soon and even release to more countries than iphone 4s)

      for stock, if he not released in qt 4 a n a ly s t would had cut earning down or not move without iphone5 stock would not had move to 705, may be sat at at 580-620 before qts4 earning and aaple may not had miss earning and stock no problem to move up to 700-800 after release iphone5 and don't has supplies problem because aapl had 3 more week to make enough at that time , that is the wrong called he made and can be avoided

      Few more another mistake like Map not ready to release before switching out from goog map , IPAD mini should wait after gift season let people can get away from buy ipad because they can buy the mini ipad cheaper for " her" kids , But that are the thing you already knew

      water under the bridge

      • 2 Replies to aea_momentum1
      • another factor that most missed, is the iPad 4 release. this showed aapl's year/year iPad growth much less than it "really" was due reducing channel inventory several million. that inventory will shift back into this q and he tried to explain it but ws clueless as ever (like tryin to explain non-gap iPhone income yrs ago). if not for that, aapl would have pre-built more iPad 3s for holiday and eps would have easily beat. i actually think, iPad mini is good thing, but price was $30 to much to really kell that low end mrkt. i think 299 was aapl intentions, but they knew supply was limited so the moved price up and kept iPad 2 to help compensate short term. imho, not best decision but i also thought the iPod mini at $249 was too high when introduced yrs ago and they could not meet demand for 6 months or more... at the end of day, it looks like with all products introduced this quarter, apple is going to a twice a year product release cycle. very, very difficult transformation but will allow the adjust more quickly to product changes, supply, etc.

        now that water under bridge... where do we go from here? any thoughts on this q. should be very big, but will it be enough and will it be too late. i am still thinking $15-17 eps and 55-60 billion revenue. when boss recommend end of year buy on thursday, i figured it ok buy here, but friday action make me more concern. if they break it down here, 480s seems very likely. not so sure after that? more insight welcome...

      • nomevoy@ymail.com nomevoy Dec 9, 2012 10:00 AM Flag

        yes, supply issues were already expected. ???pushing back revenues to later quarters which may result to flatish EPS in the next few quarters???

    • Let went back to after aapl missed qts3 earning stock was down to 570-580 , TC was worry qts4 going to miss again without iplone5 then about 2 week after earning apple ltry to eak out it own rumor that phone5 going to release in late Sep and the was rumor 100% true , even he should be knew full well the I5 supplies problem at that time already , because analyst didn't knew that, so they keep on upgrade and move earnings est up thought I5 going to had 2 week big seIl for qts4, Then stock shooting up from 570 to 704 by the time iphone5 release everybody found out aapl made not enough and also missed qt4 earning again because analyst already move est up

      My point is Tim underestimate the demand when he already knew supplies had problems should wait 3 more week before release in qt1 when supplies problem can catching up and has enough (he not only release in US too soon and even release to more countries than iphone 4s)

      for stock, if he not released in qt 4 analyst would had cut earning down or not move without iphone5 stock would not had move to 705, may be sat at at 580-620 before qts4 earning and aaple may not had miss earning and stock no problem to move up to 700-800 after release iphone5 and don't has supplies problem because aapl had 3 more week to make enough at that time , that is the wrong called he made and can be avoided and few more another mistake like Map not ready to release before switching out from goog map , IPAD mini should wait after gift season so people can get away from buy ipad because they can buy yhe mini ipad cheaper for her sons

      water under the bridge now

    • Let
      -went
      back-
      to-
      after
      -aapl-
      missed
      -qts3
      -earning
      - stock
      -was-
      down-
      to 570-580
      , TC -
      was
      -worry
      qts4
      -going
      -to -miss
      - again-
      without
      - iplone5
      -then-
      about-
      2 -week
      - after
      earning-
      apple
      -try
      - to-
      leak -out
      -it -
      own
      -rumor
      that
      phone5
      going
      to release
      in
      late
      Sep
      and
      the
      was
      rumor
      100%
      true ,
      even
      he
      should
      be
      knew
      full
      well
      the
      I5 supplies
      problem
      at that
      time
      already
      , because
      analyst
      didn't
      knew
      that,
      so they
      keep
      on upgrade
      and
      move
      - earnings
      est up
      thought I5
      going
      to had
      2 week
      big sell
      for qts4
      Then
      -stock
      -shooting
      -up
      from
      570 to 704
      by- the time
      iphone5
      release -
      everybody
      found
      out
      aapl
      made
      -not- enough
      and
      also
      - missed qt4
      - earning
      again
      because
      -analyst
      already
      move
      est up

      My
      point
      is
      Tim
      underestimate
      the
      demand
      when
      he already
      knew
      supplies
      had
      problems
      and
      should
      wait
      3 more
      week
      before
      release
      in qt1
      when
      supplies
      problem
      can
      catching
      up
      and
      has
      enough
      (he
      not
      only
      release
      in US
      too
      soon
      and
      even
      release
      to more
      countries
      than
      iphone
      4s)

      for
      stock
      , if
      he not
      released
      in qt 4
      analyst
      would
      had
      cut
      earning
      down
      or
      not
      move
      without
      iphone5
      stock
      would
      not
      had
      move
      to 705,
      may be
      sat
      at 580-620
      before
      qts4
      earning
      and
      aaple
      may not
      had
      miss
      qts4
      earning
      and
      stock
      no problem
      to move
      up
      to 700-800
      after
      release
      iphone5
      and
      don't
      has
      supplies
      problem
      because
      aapl
      had 3
      more
      week
      to make
      enough
      at that
      time ,
      that
      is the
      wrong
      called
      he
      made
      and
      can
      be
      avoided
      and
      few
      more
      another
      mistake
      like
      Map
      not
      ready
      to release
      before
      switching
      out
      from
      goog
      map
      , IPAD
      mini
      should
      wait
      after
      gift
      season
      so people
      can
      get
      away
      from
      buy
      ipad
      because
      they
      can
      buy
      the
      mini ipad
      cheaper
      for
      her
      sons
      .
      =======
      water
      under
      the
      bridge
      now

    • gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      Let went back to after aapl missed qts3 earning stock was down to 570-580 , TC was worry qts4
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      going to miss again without iplone5 then about 2 week after earning apple ltry to eak out it own
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      rumor that phone5 going to release in late Sep and the was rumor 100% true , even he should be
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      knew full well the I5 supplies problem at that time already , because analyst didn't knew that, so
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      they keep on upgrade and move earnings est up thought I5 going to had 2 week big seIl for qts4,
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      Then stock shooting up from 570 to 704 by the time iphone5 release everybody found out aapl
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      made not enough and also missed qt4 earning again because analyst already move est up
      ■gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      My point is Tim underestimate the demand when he already knew supplies had problems should
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      wait 3 more week before release in qt1 when supplies problem can catching up and has enough
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      (he not only release in US too soon and even release to more countries than iphone 4s)
      gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      for stock, if he not released in qt 4 analyst would had cut earning down or not move without
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      iphone5 stock would not had move to 705, may be sat at at 580-620 before qts4 earning and aaple
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      may not had miss earning and stock no problem to move up to 700-800 after release iphone5
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      and don't has supplies problem because aapl had 3 more week to make enough at that time , that
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      is the wrong called he made and can be avoided and few more another mistake like Map not
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      ready to release before switching out from goog map , IPAD mini should wait after gift season so
      ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      people can get away from buy ipad because they can buy yhe mini ipad cheaper for her sons
      gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
      water under the bridge now

    • Let went back to after aapl missed qts3 earning stock was down to 570-580 , TC was worry qts4 going to miss again without iplone5 then about 2 week after earning apple ltry to eak out it own rumor that phone5 going to release in late Sep and the was rumor 100% true , even he should be knew full well the I5 supplies problem at that time already , because analyst didn't knew that, so they keep on upgrade and move earnings est up thought I5 going to had 2 week big seIl for qts4, Then stock shooting up from 570 to 704 by the time iphone5 release everybody found out aapl made not enough and also missed qt4 earning again because analyst already move est up

      My point is Tim underestimate the demand when he already knew supplies had problems should wait 3 more week before release in qt1 when supplies problem can catching up and has enough (he not only release in US too soon and even release to more countries than iphone 4s)

      for stock, if he not released in qt 4 analyst would had cut earning down or not move without iphone5 stock would not had move to 705, may be sat at at 580-620 before qts4 earning and aaple may not had miss earning and stock no problem to move up to 700-800 after release iphone5 and don't has supplies problem because aapl had 3 more week to make enough at that time , that is the wrong called he made and can be avoided and few more another mistake like Map not ready to release before switching out from goog map , IPAD mini should wait after gift season so people can get away from buy ipad because they can buy yhe mini ipad cheaper for her sons

      water under the bridge now

    • One interesting thing .... I thought AEA posted last Jan12 aapl 485 by EOY. Is that right?

    • nomevoy@ymail.com nomevoy Dec 8, 2012 6:20 PM Flag

      Bought 530's last time and had hedges most of this week and Fri @close. Is it better to just close everything now and get in near 500 or just wait things out? Thanks.

    • water under the bridge but for the record let go back to after aapl missed earning stock wenr for 620 to 570 TC was worry worry going to miss again without iphone5 in qt4 then 2 week later aapl leak out own rumor I5 will be release in late Sep (the rumor was 100% true) at that time TC should already knew full well supplies problem already but analyst didn't know that yet, so they happy to upgrade and move earning est up higher and higher thought iphone5 going ha 2 week big sell at release for qts 4 earning . stock shooting up from 570 to 705 but too bad aapl did not had enought I5 and also miss earning again because analyst already move est up , my point is TC underestimate the demand and should had wait 3 more week and release in qt1 the supplies problem can catching up or has enought ( he also release in Sep to more country than iphone4s)...for stock if he did not release in qt4 analyst would had cut earning without I5 , atock would not move to 705 , may be sat on 580 - 620 before qts4 earning and apple may not had missed earning again then move up to 700-800 after iphone 5 release without had supplies proble because already had 3 more week to make enough for demand that is the mistake cab be avoided

      also switching to IOS Map from goog map when not not ready , ipad moni should not be release in gift season so pepole can get away from buy ipad when they can get ipad mini cheaper for "ger" kids that the problem everybody already knew

    • water under the bridge but for the record let go back to after aapl missed earning stock wenr for 620 to 570 TC was worry worry going to miss again without iphone5 in qt4 then 2 week later aapl leak out own rumor I5 will be release in late Sep (the rumor was 100% true) at that time TC should already knew full well supplies problem already but analyst didn't know that yet, so they happy to upgrade and move earning est up higher and higher thought iphone5 going ha 2 week big sell at release for qts 4 earning . stock shooting up from 570 to 705 but too bad aapl did not had enought I5 and also miss earning again because analyst already move est up , my point is TC underestimate the demand and should had wait 3 more week and release in qt1 the supplies problem can catching up or has enought ( he also release in Sep to more country than iphone4s)...for stock if he did not release in qt4 analyst would had cut earning without I5 , atock would not move to 705 , may be sat on 580 - 620 before qts4 earning and apple may not had missed earning again then move up to 700-800 after iphone 5 release without had supplies proble because already had 3 more week to make enough for demand that is the mistake cab be avoided

      also switching to IOS Map from goog map when not not ready , ipad moni should not be release in gift season so pepole can get away from buy ipad when they can get ipad mini cheaper for "ger" kids that the problem everybody already knew

    • Water under the bridge now But for record Let go back to after aapl missed qts3 earning stock was down to 570-580 , TC was worry qts4 going to miss again without iplone5 then about 2 week after earning apple ltry to eak out it own rumor that phone5 going to release in late Sep and the was rumor 100% true , even he should be knew full well the I5 supplies problem at that time already , because analyst didn't knew that, so they keep on upgrade and move earnings est up thought I5 going to had 2 week big seIl for qts4, Then stock shooting up from 570 to 704 by the time iphone5 release everybody found out aapl made not enough and also missed qt4 earning again because analyst already move est up

      My point is Tim underestimate the demand when he already knew supplies had problems should wait 3 more week before release in qt1 when supplies problem can catching up and has enough (he not only release in US too soon and even release to more countries than iphone 4s)

      for stock, if he not released in qt 4 analyst would had cut earning down or not move without iphone5 stock would not had move to 705, may be sat at at 580-620 before qts4 earning and aaple may not had miss earning and stock no problem to move up to 700-800 after release iphone5 and don't has supplies problem because aapl had 3 more week to make enough at that time , that is the wrong called he made and can be avoided and few more another mistake like Map not ready to release before switching out from goog map , IPAD mini should wait after gift season so people can get away from buy ipad because they can buy yhe mini ipad cheaper for her sons

      water under the bridge now

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