Let went back to after aapl missed qts3 earning stock was down to 570-580 , TC was worry qts4 going to miss again without iplone5 then about 2 week after earning apple ltry to eak out it own rumor that phone5 going to release in late Sep and the was rumor 100% true , even he should be knew full well the I5 supplies problem at that time already , because a n a l y s t didn't knew that, so they keep on upgrade and move earnings est up thought I5 going to had 2 week big seIl for qts4, Then stock shooting up from 570 to 704 by the time iphone5 release everybody found out aapl made not enough and also missed qt4 earning again because a n a l y s t already move est up too high
My point is Tim underestimate the demand when he already knew supplies had problems should wait 3 more week before release in qt1 when supplies problem can catching up and has enough (he not only release in US too soon and even release to more countries than iphone 4s)
for stock, if he not released in qt 4 a n a ly s t would had cut earning down or not move without iphone5 stock would not had move to 705, may be sat at at 580-620 before qts4 earning and aaple may not had miss earning and stock no problem to move up to 700-800 after release iphone5 and don't has supplies problem because aapl had 3 more week to make enough at that time , that is the wrong called he made and can be avoided
Few more another mistake like Map not ready to release before switching out from goog map , IPAD mini should wait after gift season let people can get away from buy ipad because they can buy the mini ipad cheaper for " her" kids , But that are the thing you already knew
another factor that most missed, is the iPad 4 release. this showed aapl's year/year iPad growth much less than it "really" was due reducing channel inventory several million. that inventory will shift back into this q and he tried to explain it but ws clueless as ever (like tryin to explain non-gap iPhone income yrs ago). if not for that, aapl would have pre-built more iPad 3s for holiday and eps would have easily beat. i actually think, iPad mini is good thing, but price was $30 to much to really kell that low end mrkt. i think 299 was aapl intentions, but they knew supply was limited so the moved price up and kept iPad 2 to help compensate short term. imho, not best decision but i also thought the iPod mini at $249 was too high when introduced yrs ago and they could not meet demand for 6 months or more...
now that water where do we go from here? any thoughts on this q. should be very big, but will it be enough and will it be too late. i am still thinking $15-17 eps and 55-60 billion revenue. when boss recommend end of year buy on thursday, i figured it ok buy here, but friday action make me more concern. if they break it down here, 480s seems very likely. not so sure after that