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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • investing10101010 investing10101010 Dec 22, 2012 3:32 AM Flag

    Apple's Numbers Should Prove a Point

    1) Apple's quarterly revenue will be its best EVER (Likely $55 billion)
    2) Apple's quarterly net income will be its best EVER ( $14 eps?)
    3) Record breaking iPhones sales whether low at 40 million or high at 60 million (likely number is 50 million)
    4) Record breaking iPads (likely number 29 million)
    5) Net income for F2013 should easily surpass $50 billion
    6) 2 % dividend currently which will only go up
    7) PE= 11.7 Forward PE= 9.5 PEG = .51 (All VERY low)
    8) $121 in cash (or cash equivalents) With this cash, Apple has more cash than the market cap of all but 18 S & P 500 companies.
    9) Gross margins whether .37-.41 (likely .39) are the BEST in the industry BY FAR.
    10) Apple has 17 % of smartphone market share, but 70% of the profits.
    11) $10 billion revenue from iTunes alone annually (Intel's revenues are about $12 billion quarterly)

    POINT BEING......Apple is still on top of its game until proven otherwise.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Changing my numbers. These are final:
      1) $56 billion in revenue
      2) 15.80 EPS
      3) 51 million iphones
      4) 24.5 million (9 million ipad minis)
      5) Margins at 40.5

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Nice post!!! What about increased competition and growing margins? They can't keep up at this torrid pace. I am still long Apple, but worried based on some of these recent downgrades.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • $54 Billion Revenue
      51 million iPhones
      28 million iPads
      $16 EPS
      38% margins

      WIthout doing any math, these are my estimates

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • With the MOST important numbers to come.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Don't forget, we had 14 v. 13 weeks of business last year q1 for comparison purposes. So, we are starting 7.6% in the hole for comparisons.

      That said, if you are calling sales correctly, then, they only got there by having higher yields to deliver the supply that was billed as iffy coming into quarter. If higher yields, then, there were higher margins than planned on higher sales and EPS could be a blow-out. This yield point was noted by either Morgan or Goldman, don't remember which.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • EPS $17
      55m iPhones
      30m iPads
      38.5% margins

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I agree with 90% of your post. I am sure you must not be aware that Apple earned 13.87 share a year ago in Q1. If they do 50 million phones( a35 % increase) and 29 million Ipads( about a double) and only earn 14 bucks then margins will have had to take a real beating and that will not be good for the stock.
      I see 17 dollars plus if your other estimates come true(which I think they will).

    • that's all well and good but Market will fret about how Apple will be able to continue to beat. Catch 22.

      • 2 Replies to techs_long_horn
      • Even if no iTV, AAPL is rolling out selling to 70 more countries this and next year, including ramping up in China. In USA AAPL has now grown to 53% of the SmartPhone market, and in Europe, China and Asia Apple's got what 2 - 25% of each country's market? So as Apple products get adopted in rest of the world, more on par with USA, heck even if they only grow to 20 - 25% market share the rest of the world, that's still huge growth.

      • Understood, but this is a problem for ALL companies. With current products and incremental upgrades, Apple will continue to be productive through 2013. China Mobile can give them a huge boost as well as the reported "Apple iTV". I like the idea of an iPad mini "retina" and possibly a "low-end" phone which goes against their principles but maybe they can just call their iPhone 4 their "low end" phone.

        In any event, I agree that innovation is key and I believe in Jony Ivie as he is primarily responsible for being the lead designer of many of Apple's products, including the MacBook Pro, iMac, MacBook Air, iPod, iPod Touch, iPhone, iPad and iPad Mini. Other than jobs, he had more operational power than anyone at Apple. I guess time will tell. Good luck investing!!!

        Sentiment: Buy

    • all good points - agree on sales - every family that has kids ages 8-16 are buying apple devices. Averaging about 2 purchases per household based on people i'e spoken with.

      • 3 Replies to simplemath67
      • In review of 2012, our 4 person family purchased 3 iPhone 4S's (one for mother in law), 2 macbook airs, 2 iPads, 1 iPad mini, and we just upgraded to iPhone 5's. On a side, my kids received over $300 in itunes gift cards which are becoming a very popular gift item.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I have two kids and they just received two iPads (mini and 4th generation) for x-mas. They both like the mini, but probably since they already have full size iPads (2nd generation) They also received iTunes gift cards and iPad accessories (not sold by Apple). Your post has extra meaning this x-mas. Happy holidays!!!

        Sentiment: Buy

      • So CNBC's hyping of the "Death / Downfall of Apple" was premature. And its corrollary telling people to buy RIMM stock Thurs. after-hours on what CNBC's shills called "better than expected results" was also premature.
        *Better than expected results, a plunge in U.S. market share from 7% down to 2% in one year at RIMM?
        Continued losses at Rimm. A 48% plunge in sales in growing market at Rimm. GEE, THAT's AN IMPROVING TURNAROUND CO.?

        Apple on other hand has seen its market share grow. It continues to pick up market share RIMM and now ANDROID too are losing in USA.

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