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  • bbandassoc bbandassoc Jan 4, 2013 6:27 PM Flag

    The silence from this compnay better be bacause of blowout earnings or heads are going to roll

    I have accumulated 46,500 shares in the low $500's because I believe they are going to have a very strong quarter and solid future. And, as a former public company CEO, there are several indications that lead me to this conclusion.

    First, insiders sold stock late in November and not pursuant to a plan. So, they must have thought at that time that the quarter was, at worst, going to meet analyst expectations. Otherwise, they were exposing themselves to significant legal risk of having to disgorge profits. I think they sold because they could get a better tax rate and knew their shares were being replaced. One BOD, Iger, actually bought stock.

    Second, Tim Cook allowed himself to be quoted about the initial China iPhone 5 sales. No way he would do this if he knew his overall quarter was weak. He also made remarks like "don't bet against Apple" which would be very unusual for a CEO to make if he had concerns about the near-term or the long-term.

    Third, all analysts who look at "demand" conclude it is strong. The only analysts raising red flags are doing so based on supplier channel checks. It's a lazy way to do analysis, but apparently it's the best the analysts as Citi, Bear Sterns and others can muster. But, if I want to know about demand, I will research demand. As such, all independent market research from reputable institutions evaluating market share and activation data support very strong demand for AAPL.

    Finally (just because this is getting long), a major premise of bears is that AAPL margins will continue to decline. AAPL has a history of reducing product costs about 40% from launch. So, margins are likely to improve in the coming quarters. Also, I believe they have major stock price catalysts ahead of them, including a new technology for next Christmas and a China Mobile deal for 2014 Chinese New Year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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