Look, I've been in the computer business for 28 years. Never, ever has even a hint of quarterly revenues been leaked in my tenure. Pretty sure AAPL is no exception. They don't call it a QUIET period for nothing dbag.
To achieve $18.50, the magnitude of the beat would have to be what would seem undoable. For example, at $65B in revenue, they would need 42% gross margin to get to $18.50. I don't think we will see either. I do think we could see $58 to $60B in revenue (Co. guide is $52B; analysts are at $54.7B) and 38% to 39% gross margin (Co. guide is 36%; analysts seem in the range of 38% to 40%) which would yield EPS in a range of $14.39 to $15.48. Personally, from the current stock price, anything north of the analysts estimates will firm the stock up, so long as they don't kill it with their guidance.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Unless i'm mistaken they beat by 49% last year (guided 9.30 EPS and realized 13.87)
So something similar *could* happen, that is, 11.75 EPS * 1.5 = 17.6 EPS
- iPad results may be slightly better than expected due to iPad mini
- iPhone5 we don't know, that fact that it was never really sold out might be a negative or positive (either lower demand or they went very big into addressing production shortage and managed to do a full quarter)
Obviously, this is wishful thinking:)
I'm confused about your calculation though, how do you get from 65B/42% to 18.5 EPS?