I notice that in September that DB raised its price target on AAPL to $850 from $775 citing robust iPhone 5 sales. They raised their CY13 EPS target from $56 to $60. First, does anyone know if they have adjusted these numbers downward since then? Second, if the their US group is raising estimates, what is this guy in Japan doing sounding the alarm on demand based on supplier channel checks?
hilarious how the retail longs here can't handle any non-bullish news.
Obviously the japan analyst is giving the market NEW info. If suppliers tell you they just saw a cut in orders, what is the guy supposed to do? hide the info? all the suppliers who are heavily dependent on AAPL are down at 52 week lows. what does that tell you.
LOL...did he notice the production of the original I Phone is down to 0? With new product and perhaps new supplies I am surprised that it down only the normal 30 % in advance of new phones....He is described as a bear.
Simply put, I think it's absurd to allow people to report concerns about demand unless they do the work and study demand. Those studying demand say the market is growing rapidly and AAPL is gaining market share. (IDC, Kantar, comScores)
There are lots of reasons why AAPL may cut certain supplier orders that could be very positive for AAPL. Are they cutting because they had much higher early yields on the iPhone 5 than anticipated, so they are swimming in product despite high demand? Are they cutting because the are selling a lot more 4 and 4S units v. the 5 at higher margins? Are they cutting because of one or both of these possibilities plus because they are switching to new vendors or launching a new product?
Tim Cook is a supply-chain genius, God knows what he has up his sleeve with regards to what this analyst observed. A 30 percent decline could just mean that they sold 55-60 m for Q1 2013 and logically do not expect to match that for Q2 2013.
Its hard to make anything out of the supply cuts that are being cited by analysts when they downgrade. The same thing happened to 4S and we know what happened in Q1 earnings. The amazing thing is how little confidence the market has in Apple, despite the fact that Apple has been destroying bears for 10 years now.