It's been obvious for several months now that the sentiment around aapl is purely negative. Wall Street naysayers have taken over, and investors have been and continue to exit. As a long, it is disconcerting to say the least. There is no magical solution to this for longs. If, like me, you have held strong, then you are waiting patiently for change of sentiment to come...and the sooner the better. So, how does this change happen? IMO there are only (3) true change catalysts for aapl, and they all must happen. In probable chronological order, they are as follows:
1. Blow-out earnings announced on 1/23. By blow-out I mean eps of over $15.50, iPhones over 50m, and iPads over 25m. Then, guidance must be strong. Aapl can leave little doubt in the minds on Wall Street that their growth and market dominance is in tact.
2. A China Mobile deal. This, on top of the earnings for FY13Q1, will go a long way to getting Wall Street even more comfortable with aapl's ability to sustain growth.
3. Introduce a new product in a new product category. The obvious product here is an iTV. Titis must happen, and it must happen for the 2013 holiday season.
If these happen by EOY, we longs will be happy again. If not, IMO, all bets are off. In the meantime, it's difficult to know where the price will be before 1/23. I will say this...I have never seen such overwhelming negativity about aapl...and rarely about any stock for that matter. I still believe, but my senses are heightened more than ever. Here's hoping aapl delivers on these catalysts in the coming months, starting with a huge beat on 1/23.
I have been out since 550 and in and out over the last 6 weeks, doing short trades or daytime scalping.
It`s such a different perspective than when I was always in long--as in huge relief.
Anyway, I think you are spot on here.
Even being on the sidelines now almost every day waiting for a quick trade and sometimes happy when I see it go down further to jump in for a pop or scalp shorting an intraday pop banging its head on the intraday downtrend,
I can`t help but have hope for AAPL`s strong resurgence to new highs.
Again, I think you`re right on about what has to happen.
I`ve only been in all of this for almost a year now and am amazed by what the market can do.
It`s a blood pressure cooker for longs now. Hope there is relief soon.