Data Suggests Apple (AAPL) May Miss iPhone Sales Projections
According to a release from AT&T (NYSE: T) earlier, the wireless giant sold 10 million smartphones in the quarter, largely led by Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). What does that mean for iPhone sales?
Last quarter, Apple reported selling 26.91 million iPhone units and AT&T said it sold 4.7 million iPhone units. That means AT&T accounts for about 17.47 percent of total iPhone sales.
Also, the 4.7 million iPhones were about 77 percent of AT&T's total smartphone sales of 6.1 million units last quarter.
If AT&T still accounts for 17.47 percent (or so) of all iPhone sales, that means a best-case sales number of 7.7 million iPhones in the most recent quarter would equate to sales of just 44.1 million units for Apple.
That is a lot of smartphones, but it may not be enough for Apple. There are a few opinions, however.
Forbes contributor Chuck Jones said last month that if AT&T can sell 7.5 million iPhones, Verizon (NYSE: VZ) with 5.5 million, and Sprint (NYSE: S) at 2 million, it should be possible for other carriers to chip in 35 million and Apple to reach the magical 50 million unit number.
One of the more noted Apple bloggers, Horace Dediu of Asymco, sees iPhone unit sales of 55.5 million units, making today's guesstimate even worse.
This quarter won't be like previous ones for Apple, as manufacturing and distribution improved enough for a massive acceleration of offering the latest iPhone model in China about a month quicker than the previous model's introduction. Adding another 3 million units to our number still doesn't put Apple at 50 million, though.
Does this mean Apple will miss first quarter estimates when it reports on January 23rd? Hardly, the iPad mini is very hot and might put the quarter over the top. Second quarter guidance, however, is a big worry among investors.
The 4.7 million iPhones sold accounting for 77 percent of AT&Ts totals smartphone sales is correct, but you cannot use that same percentage of 77% for the December quarter because iPhone 5 sales were only on sale for 2 weeks during the September quarter.
thanks for posting... now you forgot a lot of other items that AAPL did to sell a lot more units... let's see how smart you are and name them all...
we'll start you off with a hint... how many WMT iPhones were sold one year ago vs. the recent Xmas just a few weeks ago?
What does AT&T know of Iphone sales in China or around the world? AT&T only Knows AT&T.....So you are saying Motorola....google phones out sold Samsung? LOL Not happening
The only thing You got right in the post was that Apple sold the Most smart phones on The AT&T network.....That is all....
And that apple had aprox 10% growth yoy at att which is a mature distributor.
Taking that and the fact that main iPhone growth ui outside usa and there were unprecidented 100 counties it was sold at into consideration.... And also considering that samsung S3 sold only 15 million in holiday quarter worldwide... Indicating they were not able to take big sales away from apple .. One can be pretty optimistic in iphone having had huge growth worldwide this holiday season.
If You read The Original Post You would Know What I am talking about...and since you do not read it is clear that you do to understand what I am saying..... The heading for this post was, " AT&T Smartphone Data States Just 44.1M iPhone Units Sold Last Quarter" Get it Now? read it again perhaps it would help....
Att is a mature distributor of apple... And still indicated growth.
Dont forget that iphones main growth is outside of usa... And there was the unprecedented release of iPhone in 100 counties this holiday season.
Dont take att s stats and apply them to the whole apple market... The dynamics are not tye same!
Yes, does anyone remember last 2nd qtr when all of the analysts focused on ATT and VZ lower iphone numbers? All of the Big Boys shorted going to the 2nd Qtr earnings and got ther butts handed to them. Why you ask? Well, Apple blew out the 2nd Qtr and China sales was the reason. Analysts are more wrong than right, except for the honorable Horace.
"Wall Street has been mixed on what AT&T's record 10 million smartphone number could mean for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Analysts at Wells Fargo are the latest to weight in.
Looking at AT&T's Q4 2011, analyst Maynard Um notes iPhone activations as a percentage of smartphones sales were about 81%. Assuming the same percentage in Q4 2012 this would imply 8.1MM iPhone activations.
"This announcement, coupled with our recent checks, provides us with additional comfort in our December quarter iPhone estimate of 46MM."
Um notes he will look for additional reads from Verizon's earnings call on January 22, 2013 and Sprint (which has not yet been set), heading into Apple's earnings call on January 23, 2013, at 5pm ET"
Who do you work for?, reported for due diligance. At&T data does not "state just" anything. Your tactics used here are inline with hostile 3rd party marketing groups (illegal).
GL and GFY.
This is exactly what longs can expect going forward, note the last paragraph. The rumor mill knows that can't undermine holiday quarter #'s much further, so now they are going to work to breed fear into the 2nd quarter with more hearsay and FUD. Take these folks out.