% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Apple Inc. Message Board

  • im_long_aapl im_long_aapl Jan 8, 2013 7:52 PM Flag

    Shorts are scewed

    With two weeks until earnings this will be shooting up every day. Any shorts stupid enough not to cover are going to fry. Unfortunately must of the loudmouth "shorts" who post here don't really have any real position, so they won't feel real pain.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • look at history for last 4 yrs that I have been in this stock and you will see that this week and part of next it usually sells off before running up

      • 2 Replies to rlbeard6734
      • Here is a Seeking Alpha post on just that topic...AAPL's price action before earnings .Your memory and their facts don't seem to jibe. Still stand by your statement?

        "As we can see from the previous stock movement leading to earnings over the past seven quarters, AAPL stock had 5 strong rallies leading into earnings, only one coming after a slump, and only two times did it fall leading to earnings"


        From 12/20/2010 to 01/18/2011 AAPL rallied 13 days and only fell 6 days. During this period AAPL climbed from $321 to $348 equating to a 20% move up over 19 trading days. One the day of earnings being released, AAPL fell back to $326 almost erasing the entire gain of the previous 19 days. After earnings beat estimates, reporting quarterly earnings of $6.43/share, AAPL settled the following day at $338.

        The next period looked at was from March 21, 2011 leading to April 20, 2011 earnings. In this period AAPL's price rose from $335 to $354, before falling consistently the two weeks prior to earnings, until the week of the earnings release. The two days leading to earnings the stock rose from $325 to $345 after a gap up open the day of earnings. Earnings on April 20th, beat estimates again with $6.40/share earnings. After the earnings release, AAPL gapped up the following day and settled at $355.

        The following period between June 20th and earnings on July 19th saw a steady and consistent increase as expectations in AAPL's earnings growth continued to escalate. 13 trading days during this period saw higher stock prices while only 6 were lower. AAPL climbed from $315 to $378 before announcing fantastic earnings of $7.79/share, blowing away estimates. This earnings beat cause AAPL to again, gap higher to $395, settling for the day at $387.

        The final earnings release of calendar year 2011 came on October 18th. Again we saw AAPL climb higher into the earnings release, but only after a slump. From September 21st to October 4th, AAPL fell from $421 to $354, but began rallying leading to earnings and retraced the entire down move. AAPL settled at $421 prior to the earnings announcement. After the huge earnings beat in the previous quarter, analysts raised estimated for AAPL. AAPL failed to beat analyst expectations and gapped lower, opening at $401 and closing at $398.

        One year ago, leading to the January 24th earnings, AAPL again rallied higher as analysts raised earnings expectations again based on new product launches and higher AAPL guidance. The stocks steady climb from $382 on December 16, 2011 to $420 on January 24, 2012 showed AAPL investors and traders believed AAPL would again beat earnings, which they did. After reporting EPS of $13.87 AAPL gapped higher to $454 and closed at $446. This was the first time AAPL broke $450/share.

        Over the next two quarters AAPL has had declining earnings. AAPL stock rose leading to the July 24th earnings miss. Although earnings were a miss, the stock began its march to all-time highs following the gap lower the next day. After reaching its all-time high above $705 on September 21st, the stock fell week after week leading to last quarter's earnings miss on October 25th. The chart below depicts the prior two quarters of AAPL price movement.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • You are a foolish man beard.

122.37-0.17(-0.14%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT