Most they could need is about 25M. About 40% to 50% of their mix is still the 4 and 4S (it was 32% in US in October according to a study and OUS is likely quite a bit higher due to price sensitivity). So, even if they do 40M to 45M iPhones in the coming quarter (which would be strong v. expectations), they don't need more than 25M 5s. Also, my understanding is they are transitioning to a new display soon.
VERY IMPORTANT......last year there was an identical report about supply cuts for the 4S (due to weak demand) and they turned around and blew away two quarters in a row. Still, hurts the stock today, but says nothing about what gets reported next week or next quarter.
I wish I had better #s. But if they needed originally 65M in q2 they must have needed at least that many in q1. If they produced 65M and sold say 50M w/perhaps 40% of those being the4 and 4S then 60%X50M leaves 35M plus another 30M for q2 and I think that is good supply chain mgmt considering there is an upgrade scheduled for spring.