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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • shanzha8 shanzha8 Jan 18, 2013 1:58 PM Flag

    Enough already with the $ 600 plus price predictions for late next week. Im a bull but,

    even with awesome earnings a strong move it 10% max. Given we are at 500 now that would mean 550. Im not bashing just being realistic. I say we beat and head higher but most of you need to quit dreaming about 600 plus.

    shanz

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    • Let's say that AAPL rises to $525 before earnings announcement, and if earnings are blowout, AAPL will skyrocket. Apple is trading at its lowest valuation for this quarter in 9 years. I would not rule out 56 million iPhones, 26 million iPads,$3.5-$ 4 billion iTunes, etc revenue. Margins can POSSIBLY come in at 41% for a total revenue of $58.5 billion and an EPS of $17+. I do NOT think that these numbers are realistic, but MANY of the analysts have similar numbers with some even coming in higher. This would be equivalent to 31% YOY growth when consensus estimates are predicting negative growth. These numbers would easily catapult AAPL to $60 per share while maintaining a pe of around $11+ per share. IF Apple announces an increased dividend (which I predict they will), a 2% increase should raise the stock price another $10. IF they were to announce a stock buyback of $10 billion, this could also increase the share price.

      Guidance is also key, but I am hoping that iPhone demand is still strong with estimates in the neighborhood of 50 million. IT appears as if iPad mini demand is very strong, so once again, it comes down to iPhone sales. If they sold 40 million units like many are predicting, this would be 14 million units more than the same quarter last year. (Or 54% growth).

      Personally, I am expecting an EPS around $15 per share and a stock increase of about $50-$75 in the next 2 weeks.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I don't see why a move to 600 would be so outrageous when a drop from 700 to 500 is considered normal.

    • You're probably right esp given the fear and sentiment. But don't count it out completely. We'll need not only blow out #s and clear strong guidance but some bonuses (divie, split and buyback) . But if we fired on all cylinders, and I know thats a big IF, this stock would rocket.

      • 1 Reply to A Yahoo! User
      • He's probably right. Will take more than one day or one week to get back to $600. But consider this scenario:
        a. IPHONE sales above the 45 million avg. most analysts had called for last quarter, say 47 to 50mn.
        b. Reduction in IPHONE5 LCD screen orders explained, i.e., there never was a 65 mn. per quarter run rate in reality, plus New Model IPHONEs are already in the works: i. larger screen model, ii. lower cost model.
        c. a Deal with China Mobile perhaps not all done, but being worked on, partial agreement already made, with likely roll-out for Apple later this year when China Mobile gets its 3G network set-up finally in most of China.
        d. New IPAD being intro'd in March, both MIni and Regular size versions.
        e. Earnings and sales in-line with expectations, not declining sales of PCs running MSFT Windows, as Intel's report yesterday reported. Even 20% growth per year for many years, is a nice growth stock, worth 15 - 20 PE, not an 11 PE.
        f. Strategy for Apple also growing sales in Emerging Markets, such as Apple providing low-cost financing at 6% for purchasers of its phones -- something money losing companies like RIMM and NOK and HTC and MOT and SONY can't do.

 
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