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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Message Board

  • sheepskinner6 sheepskinner6 Jan 18, 2013 7:07 PM Flag


    17 January 2013
    Americas/United States
    Equity Research
    IT Hardware
    Apple Inc (AAPL)
    Q1FY13 – Supply chain noise, demand solid
    ■ Results on 23rd January, reiterate Outperform. For F1Q13, we expect
    revenues / EPS of $57.2bn (+59% qoq/+23% yoy)/$14.59 vs. consensus at
    $54.6bn/$13.34. With strong iPhone 5 shipments we expect possible upside
    to our GM estimates of 39.3%. Our CY12/CY13 EPS estimates stand at
    $44.88/$60.36. Apple remains well positioned with a privileged advantage in
    the compute market and will be able to maintain momentum across key
    product lines driven by continued innovation in hardware, software and
    services. As such, we reiterate our Outperform rating and TP of $750.
    ■ Supply chain noise or end demand weakness, we think more of an
    adjustment. We believe the recent and consistent reports of iPhone order
    cuts are on balance accurate (i.e. that builds may fall 30-40% qoq in Q113).
    However equally we believe that they are not reflective of end demand and
    are evidence of Apple ramping its supply chain more aggressively than the
    past as the product cycle accelerates. Specifically we believe strength in
    smartphone shipments at Verizon, ATT a decent launch weekend in China
    support our 49.8mn estimates up 85% qoq and 34% yoy. We project above
    consensus iPhone volumes of 138mn/192mn for CY12/CY13 driven by high
    end smartphone growth and the scope for Apple to add additional carriers.
    ■ iPad – continued strength through platform dominance. We forecast
    23.8 mn iPad units (70% qoq/+55% yoy) in F1Q13. Within the competitive
    landscape, we forecast Apple’s tablet share at ~59% in 2013 and ~50%
    long-term, though this may prove conservative given the company’s
    compute advantage, aggressive pricing and superior margin structure.
    ■ Valuation remains attractive. Trading on a P/E of ~8x our CY13 EPS
    estimate of $60.34, valuation remains attractive given earnings CAGR of
    25% between CY11-13E, LT EPS power of $75, and net cash of $128/share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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