What are analysts (or you) expecting Q2 EPS guidance to be? I have been looking around a bit and cant seem to find analyst predictions of how they think Apple will guide Q2 EPS. If anyone knows, that would be awesome.
In the mean time, here are some ways I am currently looking at it...
What would be considered "good" guidance the current quarter Q2?
In their Q1 earnings report for 2012, Apple guided Q2 EPS at $8.5.
$8.5 is 91.4% of the guidance they gave for Q1 2012 $9.3.
This years Q1 2013 guidance is 11.75.
91.4% of $11.75 is $10.74
Another approach is that analysts seem to be expecting 20% growth for the next few years.
Applying that 20% to last years guidance of $8.50 gives us $10.20
I would appreciate any thoughts.
Apple will not give guidance until the conference call so you won't find it anywhere. However,"insects doctor" is giving you a good starting point as $11.86 EPS and $46.12 billion in revenue are the analysts estimates which are ALWAYS higher than guidance. Last year during the CQ1, AAPL's guidance was $32.5 billion but actual was $39.19 billion (beat 20.58%). I don't know what analyst's revenue estimates were for that quarter. The same quarter, guidance was $8.50 per share but actual was $12.30 (beat 45%). Analyst estimates were $10.03 per share for 22.5% beat.
For the past two years, AAPL has beat revenue guidance by an average of 15% per quarter and EPS guidance by 32.77%. They have also beat gross margins by 7.75% average for the past two years. I don't know for sure, but I believe that AAPL has only missed guidance in 1 category(EPS, Rev, margins)one time in the past 10 years. They are known to lowball their estimates which ends up hurting them. For example, "bears" keep claiming that AAPL missed 3 of the last 5 quarters, but if you take a closer look at last quarter's "miss", they produced the best 3Q (calendar) for ANY COMPANY EVER in that quarter!!! Lofty and unrealistic expectations were the cause of this "miss" despite making about the same amount of money as Samsung's recent "record" quarter at a little over $8 billion in profits.(AAPL will likely profit over $14 billion in this same quarter this year)
Obviously, guidance will be the catalyst to stock price following earnings as I believe that AAPL will easily beat analyst estimates this past holiday quarter.I am guessing that they will set guidance around 41% for gross margins, $12.25 EPS, and revenues around $44 billion in revenues.I am not an expert, but I read pretty much everything AAPL and it appears as if iPhone demand will come in around 37-42 million, full size iPads will be difficult to predict but likely drop 25%. Minis should do well at maybe 15 million.Macs,iPods, and other will be a wash
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just click on the Analyst Estimates link on Yahoo. Earnings are projected to be $11.86 on $46.12B. Apple always sandbags but I would imagine earnings might actually beat Q1 and be over $15. Q2 is starting to rival Q1 because of the Chinese New Year and improving margins.
I say higher than 91.4% since Cook made a big deal last quarter how much the big rollouts were costing but also how they will be able to reap the benefits later. I'll say 100% or $11.75, but I'll sandbag it $11.25
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Hopefully they guide to $50 in earnings for the year and this past quarter the street sees 40% GM. I think guidance for the FY is at $48 and that is only like 10% in earnings growth. They need to show 15% earnings growth or PE compression will remain. Pretty sad that this stock can't even trade at an S&P multiple.
I saw the guidance expectations for Q2 (street) somewhere and I remember thinking they were pretty big...like $46B or something - its out there somewhere