Why so much doubts that AAPL may miss estimates? From all the data with ATT, VERIZON, CHINA, etc. so far, I expect APPLE to be estimates handily. Everyone I know bought a least 2-3 APPLE products this past Holidays, you see people using iPhones, iPads, mini iPads everywhere you look. Christmas gifts for my company, everyone put up iPhones, iPads, and mini iPads, the boss went out and got them all - he had to wait 10 days for the entire order of 80 items to come in... So let get on with business.
1. Beats estimates by 10% - APPL will be 575-620
2. Beats estimates by 5% - AAPL will be 525-550
3. Just meets estimates - AAPL may trade down $10 but will bounce back to 505-510
But if guidance is upbeat, then add 5-10% on top of those numbers.
I actually bought a nexus 7 this holiday season and love it. HOWEVER, all of my students are using their Iphones in class (uggh). Many of my students do own 2 or 3 AAPL products, like you said. Can't deny it, you have to own the stock.