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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • kkafieh@rogers.com kkafieh Jan 21, 2013 10:48 PM Flag

    Here is why AAPL will post killer numbers for earnings

    Apple doubles their EPS every Holiday Quarter
    Obviously, it will not double this year.
    Will growth come to a dead stop or reversal in just one year? Of course not.

    So then, what is the worst that could happen? A more gradual deceleration. Mind you, that's WORST CASE.

    Here are previous years EPS for Q1:
    2010 $ 3.71
    2011 $ 6.40
    2012 $13.87
    2013 $ ? ?

    How much will growth drop from the current average of 94.5% ?
    Let's cut that 94.5% in half to 47.25%.
    And just for fun, lets clip off another generous 12.25%: 35%

    Even if the increase is only 35% that would mean an EPS of $18.73 (analysts are estimating $13.41)
    Ok, lets get VERY PESSIMISTIC now and cut 35% in half to 17.5%. EPS= $16.23
    Ok, Let's say growth is 10%. Really? in one year we grow only 10%? Yes, let's just imagine only 10% growth. Then EPS=$15.27

    If you are short, then you are expecting Apple to slow growth to only 3% OR LESS this year.

    You are running up hill.

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