Finally we are going to get the "big flush" today. This will be the big volume exhaustion gap that will mark the end of the downtrend. I am guessing we gap down at the open to 455, trend down to the 430 range, then make a comeback to close around 485 on huge volume. This will mark the last of the sellers in the downtrend. This stock was so over owned, it took since September to shake everybody out. A mix of margin calls and frustrated longs will make the selling volume huge and capitulation day will finally occur.
Remember, stocks only go down because there are more sellers than buyers, and they only go up because there are more buyers than sellers. After tomorrow, anyone who was going to sell, either already did, or they will by noon tomorrow. If anyone didn't already sell or doesn't sell tomorrow, they are most certainly going to be in it for the long run and aren't selling any time soon. After this happens, it has to go up for the simple reason that there will be no sellers left.
be forewarned though, to have a true capitulation, you need at least 4-5X volume...so if the volume isnt 80-100 million, there will be more selling. There is support at $421, but there is a hard support around $380ish. It could go there...just be forewarned!
I wouldn't be surprised to see 60 - 80 mil. in volume tomorrow based on AH vol. If we do, you will know the bottom is in for sure. Looking at the weekly charts for the past 2 years, there is fib resistance around the 456 level. If that eventually holds (other than a quick spike lower) then bounces on high volume, I would be buying at that point.