What you are really asking is where the bottom is and, of course, no one really knows. Rather than setting an arbitrary buy price, may I suggest letting the market tell you where the bottom is and THEN cost average down as share price makes a sustained upward movement and the overwhelmingly negative sentiment fades.
True, you won't catch the absolute bottom this way, but you are also not going to catch a falling knife.
Good luck to you.
Tough spot to be in but what you have going for you, and I'm assuming that you're not a short term trader, is the luxury of time to wait for next product launches/cycle, continued momentum out of China, and sticking with "at this point", a cash generator at a valuation that will be "without question" an out performer in a market "correcting" in the event one unfolds! and one would think we are due. The MB is bashing it now, but IMO, Apple is and will be a great place to park cash based on value metrics especially if the averages give back 10% or so.
Between 445-420 is where it should bottom out and rebound so maybe space out your limit orders in that zone.
Hope that helped!
Well Woody, if you're still out there, the midpoint of what I posted last evening (445-420 accumulation zone) is 432 and today (opex Fri) the LOD was 435.
The key metric for me is simply this; 413B MC less roughly 133B cash = EV 280B
Apply a margin contracted 40.00 in EPS and divide to get PE less cash of 7 as of todays close and then factor in the rate of cash generation Q/Q and it's corresponding effect on foward EV to earnings or for the sake of easy math, just lower the current EV by roughly 10B each and every Q "IF" earnings growth stagnates.
No way, no how the stock falls through or quite possibly "even tests" 420!
Everything else is just noise from nothing more than common lemmings bashing to fit in with the crowd!