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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • aragre@sbcglobal.net aragre Jan 24, 2013 10:58 PM Flag

    Lets Look at some facts.. And please only rational people respond .. Short or long .. But bashers please take a coffee brake

    Ok lets look at the following facts!

    Looking at a company that had a ttm eps of 35 last january..and it has a ttm of 44 (46 adjusted) this january....
    They just made 13 billion in one quarter.
    They beat eps estimates... Week adjusted even more so 14.8
    They have 137 billion in cash
    Zero debt
    2.25 dividend yield.

    They have most popular phone and tablets.
    They cant keep up with supply
    China is wide open for huge growth for phones..
    World open for tablets
    New revolutionary tv on its way.. And many new products.
    Just pulled back on rumors and bs 35%
    A pe of 10 and forward pe of aprox 7

    Would u say there is something good there?

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    • jai_hakim@ymail.com jai_hakim Jan 26, 2013 10:37 AM Flag

      The future earnings are a question mark, that is why nobody is stepping up the plate to buy the shares. That is why the stock is going down.

    • ggggggggggggg

    • been telling u for weeks apple is done, Cooked. People like you continue to believe Apple is so great and forget that this isn't Steve Jobs apple, it is Tim Cook's apple, the guy is not cut out for the job. And figure u continue to dream... the difference between what you spew out in your post and reality is that apple is a still big monster stock, with no catalyst, buyers are not stepping in, value investors don't see enough value, they are in it for steep discounts. Absent their presence, no one is stepping in to buy. Growth guys are gone from apple, retailers don't have any might to support the stock, dividend investors don't see enough yield in apple to bear the risks, so if there are no buyers, the stock price falls...period... they don't care that apple has $137 billion in cash, what is the catalyst to drive stock higher? zilch.....TV idea is a joke. They would be going into the bread and butter business of Samsung, and despite what fanboys think, Samsung is a damn good competitor against apple on all fronts. This thing is heading to 300s.

      • 1 Reply to idbtc
      • aragre@sbcglobal.net aragre Jan 25, 2013 3:25 PM Flag

        In 300s. At the end of this year half of the value will be just in cash.
        They would be stupid not to take it privet!

        One thing missing from your pic is thst this company even if it does not grow in double digits..
        They still make 40billion+ a year...
        Unless u thinkabdoultly nothing good eill ever come out of them...ever... And sll this happened in 4 months.
        I dont see that reasonable!
        I see apple fair vslue in low yo mid 500s now... Once all panic is gone and rational valuation kicks in!

    • Great post, and many good responses. Thanks for sharing. I have been an Apple believer since the last decade. I thought the current quarter was pretty good... however, the margins softened up considerably. It doesn't take a genius to figure out: We made the same profits as last year, although we sold over $8 billion more of products. What's wrong or right with that picture? The earnings line hurt Apple big time. Wall Street would have been kind with revenue miss. But Street is always unkind with margins.

      Further, Apple projected a narrow revenue range of $41 to $43 billion for next quarter, which was less by more than $2.4 billion than the average analysts expectation. This has worried a lot of analysts. Not only Apple projected a lower revenue outlook for next quarter, but also they are projecting lower profits. Analysts must be thinking that Apple is hurting on both ends: Growing the company by more than 15% YOY, but also growing the EPS. They have been so used to the hyper growth years of Apple. This is a huge Reset.

      Another factor for margin compression is declining Mac sales by over 1 million. Macs produce the highest margins. How can a company sell so few Macs for the whole quarter? I know Tim Cook tried to explain this on the CC, but it still leaves a lot of unanswered questions. Apple just introduced the best MacBook line up in years with the Retina display. Why are they not selling? It's not just iMacs. One of the answers given was that the overall PC market has been very soft. But 4 million Macs sold is a huge miss in itself.

      Remember Apple missed on analyst earnings two quarters in a row.

      So, to right the ship, Apple has to come back with a bang this quarter. Show that they can deliver a big revenue number and most importantly, sizable earnings beat. Analysts are not convinced at this time. They would take a wait and see approach.

      As for buying, selling, shorting or holding - very hard to pick any of these four! Most of us who held have lost a ton!

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to traderapple
      • aragre@sbcglobal.net aragre Jan 25, 2013 3:12 AM Flag

        I believe that lack of imac sales for almost two months hurt that number.... Mind u.. Even the old imac was out of supply prior to the release of the new one.
        Then you have the supply constraints....which added to the issue.
        Then the decline in pc sales over all.
        And the cannibalization of macs through ipads.

        I personally believe the supply issue and lack of sales for two months would account for the missing sales.

        My question is why did they push to release the imac in late 2012 with production issues they had.. And stopped the old imac so early.
        Why not continue with the old imac for the holidays... And release the new imac in 2013?
        What they did ..did not really benefit them in any way.
        It would have been a good idea if they released it now as a catalyst between holiday season and the next ipad release .
        Strange and curious .
        Is it sign they are confused.. Or that they have enough procucts for 2013 release already?

    • Long term (whatever that is now) its a #$%$ shoot which tech company will be in favour, but I will bet my money that Apple with its cash hoard will be able to either price the #$%$ out of iPhones and bankrupt samsung et all or stay the course with the top end prices and innovate and engage a new market. Apple is not Rimm or Nokia, they understand customers and user interfaces there future is bright because they care and have brains and cash.

    • By about the middle of the year 2013 they will cancel the dividend and shut down most of their production and close most of their stores. Company will completely shut down by the end of the year .

    • It gets irritating reading posts like yours. You didnt even read the transcript did you? Do you even know what the 90 billion in cash overseas can be used for without it being taxed? Of course you dont you just like quoiting the 137 billion number. The real number if they paid taxes on the 90 billion would be around 110 billion...not a complete game changer, but 27 billlion is a lot of jack. At this point that 90 billion cant be used to pay dividends or buy back shares.

      Can't keep up with supply? Ugh, They have excess iPhone5s in their inventory indicating supply has outstripped demand in only 3 months, iPads at the levels they want, but are in short supply of iPad minis the one product that doesnt make them much money. Go figure.

      China is wide open except the biggest cell phone carrier in China doesnt sell the iPhone so it is clearly not "wide open."

      Yes, you know the TV is on the way because....? Oh that's right you don't know, you WANT it to be on the way.

      Rumors and BS? They just told anyone with a brain EPS would start to decline next quarter, margins are down and growth will be slowing to 6-7% which will result in earnings decreases due to the compressed margins. For illustration yoy next quarter will drop from 12.8 to around 11-11.2 bases on projections. In short EPS for 2013 will be less than 2012 by 10% to 14%and might get back to 2012 levels in 2014 IF revenue keeps increasing AND margins dont get compressed further. There is a very real chance EPS will never get back to 2012 levels depending on what happens with margins and the industry.

      Sure this could all be reversed if Apple comes out with another revolutionary device, but that's just a hope at this point. The dividend is set to go up a comparatively minuscule 10%...a 26 cent increase per quarter is not moving the share price in any meaningful way since the payout would still be well below 2.5%.

      In short stop looking backward, do some research, and then start a "rationale thread."

      • 4 Replies to tkell31
      • aragre@sbcglobal.net aragre Jan 25, 2013 1:54 PM Flag

        U never answered my question.
        Asked u twice in two different replies to u!
        Given all the facts and speculations , What is a fair value for apple? Pe 9? Fw pe of 7. ... .?
        That was the original intent of the thread!

      • aragre@sbcglobal.net aragre Jan 25, 2013 2:20 AM Flag

        I would like to ask u this hypothetical question ?

        Assume apple will only generate eps of over 40 and will not show any growth or decline in earnings for the next 5 years . Revenue open to growth.
        A bit dividend... And the cash hord...
        What is apple stock worth to you today with above consideration? .

      • aragre@sbcglobal.net aragre Jan 25, 2013 12:35 AM Flag

        Ok.. I guess u know what they can or cant do with the 137 billion... Speculation on your side... ...
        That is 137 billion we stock holders have a share of.. I wont speculate further.. It is point less.

        There is no question apple products have been in demand ... Or they would not have supply issues..Now u cant have it both ways... If they are shortv on supply they are screw ups because they cant produce .. If they catch up with supply they are screw ups because now the demand is not good or they would be out..

        U just choose to put a negative spin on a couple of the points i put in as facts.

        Margins .. Sure they are shrinking.. But even given the lower margin they did 14.8 adjusted for the missing week... Compare apples to apples! That is good growth.

        Everything else was left out by u.

        13 billion in earnings... 35 to 44 ttm eps in one year.. 19% growth in rev.
        U choose to speculate that apple is worth even less than pe 7... 1/2 of Microsoft .
        I say apple is worth at least 15 pe given what they can do and have done.
        Read every line item i wrote. And dont get irritated... ... Why would u ? Facts are facts..
        Your argument is negative future beyond 35% hit apple got....u find that reasonable?
        A few points in margin hit yet still making 13 billion and more in one q . Ok name me another company with the same stats .. Cash.. And pe!

      • I like the effort you put into this post... Most bashers just make up stuff or repeat rumors. But I'm a long who mostly hedges with short calls so sideways or a migration towards 550 would work for me. About the repatriation of cash... It could be used for an acquisition and not be taxed. About gross margins...they forecasted higher march qtr than December. About EPS... While they won't beat mar qtr 2012, but how do you come up with a 10%-14% with a $25 first 2 qtrs and reports of 2 new phone refreshes in June or oct qtr. that would be $6.5 to $7.5 per qtr? If that happens I'd be shorting with you. Anyway, nice post. I just hope you're wrong

        Sentiment: Buy

    • The hilarous people on this board that say Apple can't innovate anymore. Every idea on every tablet and smart phone in existence was part of the first iphone. The word was no one likes a virtual keyboard. Now everybody has one. These other companies like RIM and other companies sighted here do not have a platform like I0S. Apple has not recreated anything in the last year or so but they did innovate. Many features have been added. The probability of purchasing another apple product is almost guaranteed,, iTunes is far and away the place people are going to continue going for downloading apps. Music, etc. No ne has ever grown like apple has the last few years but the stock never got to the point it should have. It should have been 1000.00 and then on this report fallen to 700 maybe. It is ridiculously under valued right now. HOWEVER once market sentiment turns sour, it's a new game.

    • -Forward P/E is current price vs "projected earnings" courtesy of sell-side analysts. After a falling-knife, worthless.
      -Cash repatriation issues, so most of that amount will be taxed heavily if used. So effective cash is much lower.
      -Google has a "revolutionary tv" already.
      -China Mobile has been "close to an agreement" with AAPL for 4+ years. Unlikely for various reasons
      -Iphone is #1 in US and Japan, a nonentity in most of the rest of the world
      -2.25% div yield is not very impressive. I think S&P 500 average is 2.5%. Granted it's tech, but still.

      I wouldn't run screaming for the hills if you were in real money, but if its your core holding you may wish to reduce. The reasons for the drop are legitimate, though perhaps overstated. It's not just one horrible CC.

    • yes its a great company. but the shares keep going lower and that is where management has failed. first thing apple needs to do is come out with a phone that is larger and with a new design. i hope they have one in the pipeline otherwise why spend billions on r&d when anyone can tell you a bigger screen is a must. they can also do this with a BIGGER ipad . yes you would be surprised how a 15 inch ipad could be well received. short term what that idiot cook could do is up the dividend to stop the stock from going lower. what the hell is the purpose of making money if you dont gve it to your shareholders.

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