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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • investor101@ymail.com investor101 Jan 25, 2013 5:36 PM Flag

    need serious advise

    but from serious people. I am a grad student and obviously not wealthy...with very meagre savings and some debts. I put them all into AAPL (my very first and only stock) based on strong fundamentals, a robust core, potential, and a strong p/e. I dont have 5 year savings put away, I don't even have more savings for another month. I bought AAPL long for 460...not at some ridiculous high of 550 or 600. I still have faith in the company but I'm beginning to see just algorithmic trading than any real reasoned investments. What should I do? Will I lose everything if I stay in? I've already lost a lot...and I can't afford to lose like many here...but will AAPL return to 460 anytime soon?

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    • You made the mistake that a lot of investors make. When they see a disaster, like what happened after earnings, then they think it is a steal and buy in the next day. Only problem is the people that held through the disaster want any amount of money back so they all sell when the price goes up a little bit. That is what happened the other day. At the open it sores up and then plummets immediately. When the stock bombs like that, I wait a few days and watch it before considering something if I am on the sidelines like you were. Based on fundamentals, AAPL is one of the best, but right now the shorts and the panic sellers have control of it right now. Like one post said, it is up to how much you are willing to risk. IBD recommends selling at a 7% loss and admitting your mistake and you are almost there.

    • Do yourself a favor and take a deep breath. This stock is crazy volatile and it will get back to $460 in no time at all. Once it does I suggest you sell 80% of your stake and get diversified. Buy stocks in different sectors and before you do please do your homework.

      I already posted this, but here it is again. Do yourself a favor and look at the press release for AAPL. They have $ 137 Billion in Cash, cash equivalents and short and long term marketable securities. Basically, they have $137 Billion in cash. There are other notable figures that came out.

      1. Inventories doubled from a year ago. This could be a good or bad thing depending on what that inventory actually consists of, but the fact that they have a 2-3 week delivery for the IMac it isn’t the one product that is declining in sales.

      2. They gave back $4.5 billion in dividends and stock repurchases last quarter. They still have authorization to repurchase another $7.5 Billion over the next three years. I am not sure about the fine points of the authorization, but if they repurchase $7.5 Billion shares over the next few quarters and give a dividend of $2.5ish a quarter they will give back roughly $20 Billion to shareholders in FY13.

      3. They increased their R&D by 33% to over a $1 Billion for just last quarter.

      I am priced in at a decent price, but the decline still hurts. Don’t just look at Yahoo finance, look at the numbers yourself and you may be able to sleep at night.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • If you can't afford to lose, I suggest that you get out of stocks and put your money into savings, or short-term bonds. When you save up money that you are more willing to risk, then consider stocks, and a number of stocks would be less risky than putting all your money into one stock. No one knows if AAPL will return to 460 anytime soon. I think it could go to 600, and I think it could go to 350 which sure would make the dividend yield look attractive.

    • AAPL recently bounced hard from $500 dip to $580-ish. AAPL will bounce again from about $420 to $480 next week sometime. So, just keep that in mind. Traders will seek to trade the fast bounce from $420 or so back up, and then they will probably sell on that bounce.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Something tells me you took out student loans to buy AAPL? LOL! You deserve it.

    • if you bought a 460, you're only down about 5%. Not a huge deal to cut your losses if you want. They're going to flush out everyone on margin and the chart strongly suggests further downward pressure. Should hold 400 though. Eventually, you should be fine at 460 if you have patience. Plus you're getting a dividend to hang around. Only you can answer this question. Have a good look in the mirror. How much is this going to hurt you if you don't get to 460 for a year?

    • read reminecences of a stock operayor five times, it was written in 1923 and still as valid as ever. the guy is right, p/e means nothing, sort of, look at NFLX, just get out before the collapse

    • You are asking a question which has no answer.

      Why do you think that fundamentals, p/e and etc can control the price of a stock? Sure, When things are calm, yes you can actually see the "fair value" but when the boat is rocking hard, no one knows. your analysis can be right but what good will it do when market disagree with you?

      I have been in the market 15+yrs... APPL is going down because its where the people think it is fair at. You see, every tick, there has to be an agreement on price between a buyer and a seller but disagreement on the value. So the price of aapl is fair for now. do you understand?

      If you have bought in without margin, aapl needs to goto 0 for you to lose everything. so you will not lose everything if you stay in. however, the direction, I do not know. all I see is they trend is down and it looks bad..closing 2days near the low is not what you want to see if you are long.

      Last, when you enter a trade, please note that only thing you can control is your risk. you CAN NOT control where the price will go. so please! manage your risk. determine the amount of your risk. you are buying aapl at 460 and like to test your theory on valuation? good! then go ahead by putting your money on the line. but know this, your exit plan needs to be planned ahead of clicking on BUY on your brokerage account. So In your case, maybe risking 30% which is at 322, set it as your stop loss point. Sure, it can gap down below your stop point but at least it gives you an idea of what is on the line.

      I explain this to you because you said that you were a student. hope this can help you a little. Good luck.

    • Youre a grad student? First, get your tuition money back... you didnt learn a thing.

    • Sorry you won't see 460 any time soon. Support coming in the mid 300's.
      I recommend investing in R.H. Ruana knives and bowies. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket.
      If greed enters in the slightest way into your thinking, stop and go down another path.

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