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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • brattle_smattle brattle_smattle Jan 26, 2013 11:10 AM Flag

    spoke to an insider

    on Wall St. He laughed about the fear. He said anyone looking at the income statement and balance sheet as well as the cash flow statements would see that the stock has a value of 682. He said if Apple never grew a dime more than this past year the stock would still be at this 682 price. Also he said per the balance sheet if Apple was liquidated right here and now every share would be worth upwards of $2200. This is real estate, technology assets and the return of the projected 10B capex for the year. he also said that with 80,000 employees Apple is the leanest company in the world on a revenue per employee basis. He also said that professional money managers are loading up here. All the shares you see trading are retail and weak 3rd party managers selling in to the hands of strong fund managers. He project Apple will finish 2013 at $920 per share pre split because he believes there will a 6 to 1 split withing the next Q when the share price is 580.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • what drugs he on; you might want to check out what pharmaceutical companies he getting his stash from
      might be the next wonder drug: "gives user ability to ignore reality"

    • Somebody WAKE HIM UP! Please!!!!

    • just need the stock to trade at an average 15PE like every other, still room to grow

    • If you really mean liquidated, then no - it would be worth $200 billion or so, not $2200. If you really meant split up, and individual businesses IPOes (iPad, iPhone, etc), then it still wouldn't be worth $2200/share, more like $1000.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Did you ask him if he owned it? Up at "Fair value" 682 maybe? Considering he was laughing, the answer must be NO.

    • bumpp

    • NFLX was 300, now 150, down 200%
      Absurd what funds have done to APPL.
      TA folks riding wave at moment.
      When SP drops back to 1400 where do you think funds will put money?
      Bonds? LOL
      Cook does not inspire confidence, but AAPL has far too many talented people not to produce the next "wow".
      Emerging markets seem to be the elephant in the room that analysts don't mention.
      They don't want you too.
      Those markets will dwarf what AAPL has done domestically.
      And no one ever mentions the billions of people in India.
      Don't watch the show, pay attention to the man behind the curtain.
      The baby is fine. It's the bath water (retail and funds that need to show a return) that have been rushing to exit.
      Heck, PG has a higher PE than AAPL.
      Want to value AAPL as a value stock.
      Try 650 minimum.
      It's an investment, not a short term trade like NFLX.
      Their model is much like BETA and VHS was to media.
      AAPL does need to deploy cash.
      Content, satellite wireless and emerging markets ecosystem revenues so huge that AAPL making $250 billion in profit a year is grossly under estimating the potential.

    • I'm long and agree with a lot of what has been said (whether a true insider or not). However on the $2200 breakup value, I'd like to know he came up with that value.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hi there. Are you serious on this conversation you had and not just making it up ?
      I hope you are 100000000 % valid on this.

      I'm long 170 shares at $575/ share and I'm fuuuuuccccked for now.
      It was so hard for me to endure the last few days... just literally heart wrentching !

      I just want it to go back to $550 or $575 level and I'm willing to break even at that level and not even profit.

      Are you really serious on what you had said ?
      What you said gave me a lot of hope so pleasssssssse be truthful.

      • 3 Replies to coffeebook1
      • why didnt you get a put when I told you to hedge?

      • Reduce your holding or sell it all. This is my friendly and honest advise. If you want to sleep well reduce apple in you portofolio to max 20%. There will be nothing positive from Apple to lift the stock. Eps will be dramaticaly compressed. I would change my mind if Apple created another revolutionary things as they did with Iphone and ipad. Keep in mind that ipad's marging are only 20% vs 70% on iphone.

        Sentiment: Sell

      • There may be more pain to come....but I think you have suffered most of the pain to this point. I own shares at $99...I saw them go all the way up to $705 and did not sell. Wished I did. But you and I are in the same spot believe it or not. Is this the best place right now to grow your money back to what you have lost so far and is it the best place for me to make money from this point forward. In other words, what other options to we have to make money...because clearly this isn't the only place.
        Hopefully, this is not a large position for you as a percentage of your total portfolio. From my reading of your message, it appears as it might be...."heart wrenching". If it is, then lesson learned - not to sound mean...but I had to learn that lesson myself - you just cannot bank on one stock.
        So, here is what I do now. I trade UPRO and SPXU pretty much least right now. Both are 3X ETFs on the S&P. Yes, that is alot of risk...but wait. AAPL, by the way is about 2% of the holdings . Today, the direction of the S&P is up,up, up. Currently, and I am talking recently, the S&P hits its daily low sometime around 10:30 am to 11:30 am EST...not always. At this point, I buy UPRO (because I think S&P is going up) don't go all in...I use about 10% to 20% of my account (in fairness...this is risk money...wouldn't change my lifestyle if I lost it...but emotionally...would be very difficult...I would want to "make it back"...this sounds like where you are). I then place a got to have a stop!!!!!....if I buy at $100, I would set my stop at $98....just knowing this ETF "today"...that is a safe distance to let the trade, I am looking at getting out by the end of the day. I will take a profit of say 50 cents to up to $2 per share. The S&P just keeps going up "today". Seriously, I have not lost on one single trade in 2013. This takes discipline!!!!! somedays I don't trade!...I make $1K to $2K per week currently.

    • I knew it and held my $482 shares. I am going to average down at 430.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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