)Microsoft topped dec.1999 at $60.
-The price fall back into the range of 38.2%-67.7% of the top.
-It lost a max. of $39 from the top, exactly 1 year after breaking down from the top.
-Since then, all 12 years long, it oscillates between $21 and $37 range.
-On the way down, MSFT dropped in 5 months first to 50%, rebounded in 2 months to 18%, and the then dropped to bottom in 5 more months, to 38.2%.
2)AAPL topped at $700. If the above parallel holds:
-AAPL should fall in a year into $440-264 range, and stay there for the next 12 years.
-on the way down, currently AAPL is at 5 months decline, it is time for the first rebound bottom at $440,
and should rebound in the next 2 months 18%, close to $520.
From that point we might expect AAPL price to fall for 5 months, bottoming sept.2013 at $264.
If it follows the MSFT pattern.
The psycology is pretty much the same.
Comparing apples and oranges !! y not compare it with AMZN ? GOOG ?
Totally ridiculous to compare a company that was trading at 65 times earnings and did NOT have over a 100 billion $ in the bank with a company trading at 10-12 times earnings (even granting that future eps are no guarantee) and so much cash !!
Right. MSFT now has a PE of 14. At the same PE aapl should trade way above 700.
Also in acouple of years apple will have more than $200 cash per share. So you are saying that aapl would be trading at cash level from 2013-14 and on? How much sense does that make to you?
If you take the 2000 nasdaq crash and the 1929 crash and put them side by side they are amazingly similar, I remember Jessie Livermore would short bear market rallies, so he would have shorted APPL at 580 after the crash to 505, your rational makes sense.
I think MSFT p/e is was over 70 when started its stock price decline. Apple was at 12s. Making $13 Billlion & no debt (loaded with 100s of billions in cash) and CRASHING. That has got to be a new one for the business analysis books.