Apple (AAPL) came in with a mediocre report that was right in line with the analysts. People are clearly disappointed. Below is a summary of analyst’s estimates and actual results.
Category Analysts Estimates Apple Results
Revenue 54.74 B 54.51 B
EPS 13.45 13.81
iphones 47.6 MM 47.8 MM
ipads 24 MM 22.9 MM
Why are people disappointed? Apple was a high growth company growing 60-80% a year and suddenly it has slowed down to 15-30% and that has everyone scared and confused. Below I lay out the last 3 years Q1 Year over Year % increase in the 4 most important areas for Apple. You can see the decrease in momentum is alarming.
Category 2013 2012 2011
Revenue 18% 73% 71%
EPS -0.4% 116% 75%
iphones 29% 128% 86%
ipads 48% 110% N.A.
It’s pretty stark. Apple is decelerating fast. Is Apple still a great company with a bright future? Yes, but it will be a slower growing company with up and down quarters. It is no longer the company that originally attracted me; a company growing 100% a year selling for 13 times earnings. Can Apple accelerate its earnings growth again? Yes, it can. The iTV or China Mobile could reignite Apple. For the time being, Apple is a company with slowing growth.
I have devoted 100% of my time following Apple and investing in it. I love this company and I love its products. The company no longer warrants 100% of my time. I will join my wife and begin trading 5-10 stocks like I did before I got involved with Apple. Apple will be on my list so it will get at least 10% of my time. I will not comment on Apple nearly as much because I will not study or research it like I did. I will not keep up the comment section because it obviously takes up so much of my time. I may or may not comment on what I am doing as a more active trader in the future. I said Q1 earnings would give us the truth and it did. I accept it.
Good post. Yes people are disappointed but the company their numbers, and the demand for their product is clearly still robust. Seems the iPAD mini sales are accelerating. I was just in a popular store and the seem to be selling out daily. An upside surprise in Q2 seems possible. All talk on CNBC and the message boards and so on are scaring people into selling. What can you do but follow the wave.
What other stocks are you watching?
Looks like he pulled his Blog. It was there last night, but here is the short on his story. Nick is done with Aapl, as he said he would be, after 3 Earnings misses. He and his wife are going to trade other stocks, and he may only do 10% on Aapl at any given time. Nick Nansen needless to say is dismayed with Apple. He may Post every now and again, so check for him now and again. He did say that he may cut back on his Postings, and now seeing the Blog pulled alarms me. That was quick. Hope this helps.
Yeah, I saw his farewell benediction...so all those times you posted his latest reccomendation and blogged about his fabulous website kind of makes you no better than the nefarious JOOanalysts of CNBC or...in all hindsight, no better than SHEePSKINNER, or Cramer.
By his latest message he is taking a breather from Apple just like I am, I lost a lot of money like a lot of investors did. Sometimes you need to step back and take some time off and focus on other positive things in life. One day and I hope soon a lot of negative stuff will pass just like most negative things do over time. Just my take
Thanks. I did read his last message post earnings release. I knew he was moving on, broadening to some degree, etc... The starkness of the blog being pulled was jarring. Not what I expected. The pic he left behind is telling. I sincerely hope he's ok. Seemed like such a good guy. The ride down on aapl has not been pleasant. I don't doubt TC & co. arrogance/aloofness in absolute full bloom helped a guy like Nick either. ..