1)Microsoft topped dec.1999 at $60.
-The price fall back into the range of 38.2%-67.7% of the top.
-It lost a max. of $39 from the top, exactly 1 year after breaking down from the top.
-Since then, all 12 years long, price oscillates between $21 and $37, exactly Fibo 38-63% of the top.
-On the way down, MSFT dropped in 5 months first to 50%, rebounded in 2 months 18%, and then dropped to bottom in 5 more months, to 38.2% of the alltime top.
2)AAPL topped at $700. If the above parallel holds:
-AAPL should fall by sept.2013 into the $440-264 range, bottoming at $264, and stay there for the next 12 years.
-on the way down, currently AAPL is at 5 months decline, this is best time for the first rebound,
from current bottom at $440,
-the rebound should last the next 2 months, upward 50% of the total drop of (700-440)*50%= 130, topping at 430+130=$560.
-From that point on, we might expect AAPL price continue to fall for 5 more months,
bottoming sept.2013 at $264.
If it follows the MSFT pattern. IF.
The psycology is pretty much the same.
And psycology is much more important factor than cash, PE, Bookvalue, etc;
simply because almost ALL Apple investors are underwater. Just like MSFT investors, in year 2000.
Explain that reasoning plz. Q2 is expected to be worse in terms of earnings than prev Q2 2012, which indicates negative growth. Speculating on the next iProduct as a driving force for growth seems a bit risky ?