This is my outlook: The Microsoft lesson IS parallel to AAPL
1)Microsoft topped dec.1999 at $60.
-The price fall back into the range of 38.2%-67.7% of the top, for the next 12 years.
-It lost a max. of $39 from the top, exactly 1 year after breaking down from the top.
-Since then, all 12 years long, price oscillates between $21 and $37, exactly Fibo 38-63% of the top.
-On the way down, MSFT dropped in 5 months first to 50%, rebounded in 2 months 18%, and then dropped to bottom in 5 more months, to 38.2% of the alltime top.
2)AAPL topped at $700. If the above parallel holds:
-AAPL should fall by sept.2013 into the $440-264 range, bottoming at $264, and stay there for the next 12 years.
-on the way down, currently AAPL is at 5 months decline, this is best time for the first rebound,
from current bottom at $440,
-the rebound should last the next 2 months, upward 50% of the total drop of (700-440)*50%= 130, topping at 430+130=$560.
-From that point on, we might expect AAPL price continue to fall for 5 more months,
bottoming sept.2013 at $264.
If it follows the MSFT pattern. IF.
The psycology is pretty much the same.
And psycology is much more important factor than cash, PE, Bookvalue, etc;
simply because almost ALL Apple investors are underwater. Just like MSFT investors, in year 2000.
Summary: if you want to be on the safe side, buy sept.2013, at $264.