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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • ram9751 ram9751 Jan 27, 2013 1:52 PM Flag

    Is it stooopid to be long at 570 and hope it goes down some more?

    I want it to go lower so the 2nd batch I buy will be very cheap and of course my cost basis will drop dramatically.

    What do you think?

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    • nobody can predict bottom.not even the experts. If you are thinking of buying you should probably do it the next couple of days.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • This is my outlook: The Microsoft lesson IS parallel to AAPL

      1)Microsoft topped dec.1999 at $60.
      -The price fall back into the range of 38.2%-67.7% of the top, for the next 12 years.
      -It lost a max. of $39 from the top, exactly 1 year after breaking down from the top.
      -Since then, all 12 years long, price oscillates between $21 and $37, exactly Fibo 38-63% of the top.
      -On the way down, MSFT dropped in 5 months first to 50%, rebounded in 2 months 18%, and then dropped to bottom in 5 more months, to 38.2% of the alltime top.

      2)AAPL topped at $700. If the above parallel holds:
      -AAPL should fall by sept.2013 into the $440-264 range, bottoming at $264, and stay there for the next 12 years.
      -on the way down, currently AAPL is at 5 months decline, this is best time for the first rebound,
      from current bottom at $440,
      -the rebound should last the next 2 months, upward 50% of the total drop of (700-440)*50%= 130, topping at 430+130=$560.
      -From that point on, we might expect AAPL price continue to fall for 5 more months,
      bottoming sept.2013 at $264.

      If it follows the MSFT pattern. IF.
      The psycology is pretty much the same.
      And psycology is much more important factor than cash, PE, Bookvalue, etc;
      simply because almost ALL Apple investors are underwater. Just like MSFT investors, in year 2000.

      Summary: if you want to be on the safe side, buy sept.2013, at $264.

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