The 137 Billion in cash at end of December is already 140 Billion by the end of this week, if not already. Current EBITDA of 55 Billion a year puts cash postion at 190 Billion by year end, give or take a couple Billion. That's over 200 per share in cash!
I know, what I posted was simplified. but I get tired of seeing the idiotic short pos. posts about going BK or stock price going to 0 or the other BS. Depending on what they do dividend, buyback or acquisition wise they could easily have 160-170 billion by end of year.
For what its worth, I would rather see AAPL work its way back up instead of a quick rip. Hopefully, that process is under way now.
Not really. Lucky to do 40B in 2013 now if you use apple's own guidance. that puts them at under 180B at years end. If you use cisco's valuation they are 2x cash. so apple would be 360/share in one year to just match cisco now.
Street won't give apple any multiple because they know the cash will never find its way to shareholders. No big buyback or dividend increase coming, ever. Keep hoarding cash for rainy day and losing 3% per year to inflation on it. Conference call made this quite clear they have no altered plans for the buyback or dividend for at least 3 years.
Between now and then if apple does not have a new product category their margins are going to get killed. Margins were only high because they had no competition. Every time some came along Jobs came up with next product and could demand high price. Then competition catches up and you gotta have the next big thing or margins going lower.
I think apple tv not happening. Cook cannot get content deals done. He is not Jobs. iPad is last blockbuster product we'll see out of apple now. ipad and iphone will continue to get assaulted by Android and lower prices and good enough alternatives. Don't fall in love with a stock. I held for 5 years until the conference call. The second they said no buyback and dividend boost I hit sell and never looked back. PLenty of other good stocks to ride up strong the 50% plus apple needs to hit new highs and with less downside risk too.
You are correct about the cash, most of the rest I dont think is accurate. If they werent going to increase the dividend they wouldnt have started it. Considering they already set aside 5 billion to increase it I have to wonder why people think it won't increase. Think about it, 45 billion to return to shareholders, a 10 billion buyback, 10 billion a year in dividends is 40...leaving enough for 15% increases to get to 45. Not hard to figure out, but seems like most people can't. Just because they arent increasing them now doesnt mean they wont get increased in March..that is one year from when it was first announced anyway. Look for the increase then. If I'm wrong and they don't (I will be wondering where that 5 billion went) I would probably sell as well. It would be ridiculous not to with all the free cash flow they have.
Margins will stay higher than the competition because Apple controls a lot of the supply chain. Research it. They use billions to supply the suppliers with the equipment to build the parts...keeps the supliers costs down and they pass it on to Apple.
You are right, short term Apple looks like it will be rangebound so probably better investments.
This is one of the major fundamental points. If any of you actually read the earnings transcript you would have noticed mgmt stressing that CONSTRAINTS to the supply chain effected last quarters sales. Mgmt clearly communicated to the world that supply couldn't meet global demand. They said sales would've been higher with more supply. Thus DEMAND is outstripping supply GLOBALLY for every product line they have. I have recognized this and have great confidence in a much higher year end share price. I put my money where my mouth is. The biggest threat to Apple believe it or not is VZ/T. Both of those companies have tremendous NEGATIVE shareholder equity.
Supply chain issues are going to exist as far as the eye can see. Still no iMac availability. Pathetic. Cook has too much on his plate. His old job running supply chain and now steve's job as ceo. In over his head
The real problem is Cook the Operations guy is getting it wrong and needs to be more diverse , prepared , and open for change with innovation.
1: Diverse.....putting all your faith in Foxconn after all the problems Apple has had with them is simply stupid.
If Foxconn can not make products fast enough there is a problem......stop using the excuse we can not make them fast enough...That is lame!!!! Why is Cook putting all eggs in one basket......I am sure Apple can have a second Manufacturer that will ensure product availability ......or simply in case of ...riots...walk outs.....fires.....you name it........
2: Prepared.....If it is a supply component problem then maybe you should be prepared when you sue your supplier......Did Cook and Company think Samsung would not raise prices on Apple ? Did Apple think Samsung would bow Down to Apple? Seriously Apple should have been ready with multiple suppliers for components for the product.....again the nonsense of can not get enough supplies to make the products......please...more Lame excuses ....Tim Cook An Operations guy should be ready.......
Seriously Did Cook get up one day and say we will refresh the entire line ...we will announce it even though we have no components to build the products and no new inventory built ready to go for Holidays....Come on ...Seriously?????
3: Open for Change with Innovation......again Cook and Company is missing the boat on larger screen phones and a IPhone for the lower income folks who still would like an IPhone but can not afford it...weather it be the cost of the phone or the costs The Carriers charge for the plans which includes getting money back for subsidizing and pumping their profits...........Fact is The Innovation is coming to slow.....Apple is falling behind the curve and is slow to respond to a changing environment and desires of all consumers.
If You are going to be a leader of Innovation Then Let's do it Already........