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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • joemattamjr joemattamjr Feb 1, 2013 2:52 PM Flag

    Any serious advice here?

    I understand that people are saying growth is slowing. I get that. I also am able to udnerstand that P/E means nopthing. Got it. Also I understand that people need to see something in teh pipeline or a "wow" factor to get people excited again. But what doesnt make sense is how other stocks like Netflix, Amazon, and Google can soar based on their earning and expectations. In teh meantime Apple lags terribly. What can I do now? Apple has fallen ridiculously and teh market is super up- at some point the market will correct and im wondering if Apple is going to fall even further. Also I am open to btoh sides of teh argument whther you believe or you are a short. I just want some serious advice on what to do. Im not too old but ive been investibng for 10 years and time Apple has gotten me to sell everythign at 517 and after that i still bought in like an idiot and am down a ton - i have picked up half of my orig position at 550 and 502 - should i cut my losses or is there any real reason to think this stock can come back? Every time something liek this happened I got used to it and rode it out- this time its been almost 5 months and it took more than half of my net worth away. Any serious advice?

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    • Apple is a bubble.
      Do a search for a bubble chart and compare it to the long term chart on apple. almost exact match!
      It's a bubble (I hate to say it) because of people like you. I've had friends who said they wanted to load up more when it was in the low 600s before it hit $700. Friends dad was asking whether he should buy more apple as it was climbing higher. You need to think clearly. Just take a look at the housing bubble. Once people like you throw in the towel and capitulate and sell at $360, that is when apple will be done going down. So get out now before that happens.

    • Like you, I'm long AAPL at well over $600. I didn't believe the sell off, but now it's obvious that growth money took it up tp $700 and growth money took it down. The little people got caught and were sliced and diced. It's now a long term proposition to hold this puppy, but we're missing out on the incredible run right now. We are in the "dead money" zone, and will be for some time. When the market corrects, we might be better off since the holders perhaps are becoming more and more value investors. In any event, depending on your cost basis, you should make the decision to hold as a long term play, or get out and place your bets elsewhere...short term is nowhere.....

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I am seriously thinking of doubling down via long term calls. Could be a disaster but Apple is too strong fundamentally to not approach $600 or more over the next year. Shoot, cash is worth 30% of hte capitalization.

      Current valuation assumes 30% declines over the foreseeable future.

      200 Billion iTunes downloads in 2012. That's not going to go away anytime soon.

      iCloud. Not going away.International e

      Apps. Not going away.

      Tablets and phones may be lower mkt % but the markets are growing. iPhone is actually increasing share in US. A lot of EU share shrinkage is EU is in tough financial times. International economies are turning around; iPhone is still the choice, albeit pricey.

      Projected margins according to aapl outlook look to be solid. Margins rival the best of software companies.

      This is still a growing business; not 50-70% but 20% is real.

      DMAs change and when the 50 dma crosses 200 dma the technicals will scream upside.

    • fundamentally broken, over owned by funds, market cap too big to move, too many people are under water now, they will sell on any rally, funds will sell on any rally to recoup losses - and Cook's lack of innovation and poor cash handling - signals unfriendly mgmt to shareholder - and more importantly, BETTER bets elsewhere in this whole market.

      • 1 Reply to idbtc
      • IDBTC GIVES GOOD ADVICE!!......Ive been saying for 5 months....now the market is proving me correct. People that cant see this are going to lose...of course, if cook comes out with another game changer, all bets are off. But Wall Street isnt a Cook fan and most of us dont believe they much to show other than bigger, smaller, more gigs, different colors....who cares?....Not the market!

    • dorianpc@ymail.com dorianpc Feb 1, 2013 3:23 PM Flag

      As long as you believe that P/E means nothing you are doomed. The trick right now is determining what earnings are going to be. Once you have those numbers, it will be pretty easy to see that you need to scale out of this thing. Keep an eye on apple's cash, and what they are doing with it. If you see a dollar that is not coming bac to you It is time to cut and run. The market loves to make mincemeat out of heroes. Right now there is blood in the water and it is about to spill into the street once the next feeding frenzy starts. Take every dime and invest in nokia. It is the onlyway for you to get your money back. Apple has nothing in the pipeline and the carriers are going to tell them to shove their high priced phoñes. Even china doesn't want them.
      Are you listening? You are chained to a corpse. NOKIA asha and lumia is the future with MS calling the shots.
      remeber. Cash is key. If you see it drop, it's al over. The market will take this thing down and leave you crying like a baby. WINDOWS TABLET COMING. APPLE is for old people who smell like hospitals.
      Some one should take apple tothe hospital wher it can die in peace.

    • Wow. Stop gambling on stocks ;-)
      Seriously, there are very few sure picks, even then you've got to babysit them every day (almost) or set a stop loss trigger or something to avoid being caught in a sell-off.
      You should not gamble money on stocks that you cannot afford to lose.
      I personally think AAPL will rebound just fine this year, but the question is when and how much. I expect to see it up to at least $550/share by the end of 2013 (and will hold trying to get $600/share, if that seems to be possible at the time).
      This year looks to be bullish for stocks, but you never know ...

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to furball_80110
      • IBM, MCK, P&G and countless others have survived pull backs or sell-offs along these lines. Timing the bottom is almost impossible, but can be done. AAPL will trade back over $500 as soon as the current period of consolidation is over. Weather it takes a week or a month just sit back and relax! AAPL has over $137 BILLION in cash. You should get a money manager! Not sure if he'll do any better. AAPL will be fine. The stock is over-sold right now. Which is not uncommon in today's market.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • IRS: Cheapest Obamacare Plan Will Be $20,000 Per Family
      January 31, 2013


      Barack Obama, Kathleen Sebelius, Nancy Pelosi

      President Barack Obama hugs HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi after signing the Obamacare law on March 23, 2010. (White House photo/Pete Souza)

      (CNSNews) – In a final regulation issued Wednesday, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) assumed that under Obamacare the cheapest health insurance plan available in 2016 for a family will cost $20,000 for the year.

      Under Obamacare, Americans will be required to buy health insurance or pay a penalty to the IRS.

      The IRS's assumption that the cheapest plan for a family will cost $20,000 per year is found in examples the IRS gives to help people understand how to calculate the penalty they will need to pay the government if they do not buy a mandated health plan.

      The examples point to families of four and families of five, both of which the IRS expects in its assumptions to pay a minimum of $20,000 per year for a bronze plan.

    • Everyone here has had a bade trade where they lost way more than they thought they would.

      Obvioiusly, saying things like don't put yourself in a position to lose half your net worth on a single trade is not helpful here... I only just said it, so other people reading this might take notice.

      Look, APPL is still a great company, adding about 1,000,000,000 to their bank sheet every week. They're fundamentally valued, and people are still buying their products like crazy. The problem we're in right now, is that we're reading negative article after negative article. That pushes the stock price down. Once Apple starts going up, you'll start reading positive article after positive...

      Honestly, I'd hold your position at this time.

    • Steve would have taken the "b" out of his last name and replaced it with an "o" and the stock would gap up 200 points instantly.

    • First stay long APPL. All the bad news bashing is over. What new stuff could they come up with?AAPL has been attacked on evry front, the bashers are now out of bullets. The fact that the BB10 came out and AAPLs price didn't flinch should tell you something. Back to 700 soon.

      • 1 Reply to njschlub
      • That's what people said last month after it dropped 200 points and yet here we are even lower. This stock is trading on the technicals, NOT fundamentals. IT"S A BUBBLE! Go do a search for a bubble chart. It fits perfectly on top of Apple long term chart. It even includes the dip in late 2008. Apple went parabolic after $425 so we need to take that out. Head and shoulders formed...Not at bottom yet.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

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