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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • joemattamjr joemattamjr Feb 1, 2013 2:52 PM Flag

    Any serious advice here?

    I understand that people are saying growth is slowing. I get that. I also am able to udnerstand that P/E means nopthing. Got it. Also I understand that people need to see something in teh pipeline or a "wow" factor to get people excited again. But what doesnt make sense is how other stocks like Netflix, Amazon, and Google can soar based on their earning and expectations. In teh meantime Apple lags terribly. What can I do now? Apple has fallen ridiculously and teh market is super up- at some point the market will correct and im wondering if Apple is going to fall even further. Also I am open to btoh sides of teh argument whther you believe or you are a short. I just want some serious advice on what to do. Im not too old but ive been investibng for 10 years and time Apple has gotten me to sell everythign at 517 and after that i still bought in like an idiot and am down a ton - i have picked up half of my orig position at 550 and 502 - should i cut my losses or is there any real reason to think this stock can come back? Every time something liek this happened I got used to it and rode it out- this time its been almost 5 months and it took more than half of my net worth away. Any serious advice?

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    • Everyone here has had a bade trade where they lost way more than they thought they would.

      Obvioiusly, saying things like don't put yourself in a position to lose half your net worth on a single trade is not helpful here... I only just said it, so other people reading this might take notice.

      Look, APPL is still a great company, adding about 1,000,000,000 to their bank sheet every week. They're fundamentally valued, and people are still buying their products like crazy. The problem we're in right now, is that we're reading negative article after negative article. That pushes the stock price down. Once Apple starts going up, you'll start reading positive article after positive...

      Honestly, I'd hold your position at this time.

    • First stay long APPL. All the bad news bashing is over. What new stuff could they come up with?AAPL has been attacked on evry front, the bashers are now out of bullets. The fact that the BB10 came out and AAPLs price didn't flinch should tell you something. Back to 700 soon.

      • 1 Reply to njschlub
      • That's what people said last month after it dropped 200 points and yet here we are even lower. This stock is trading on the technicals, NOT fundamentals. IT"S A BUBBLE! Go do a search for a bubble chart. It fits perfectly on top of Apple long term chart. It even includes the dip in late 2008. Apple went parabolic after $425 so we need to take that out. Head and shoulders formed...Not at bottom yet.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • hold out for now. wait til after board meeting and dividend at least. I have not heard but maybe one analyst state aapl is overvalued. almost everyone says apple is a steal at these levels. This is bash apple times and my opinion fair value is closer to %580 then $480. hang in there.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • My advice is this: don't put all your eggs in one basket. I've made this same mistake over and over again, holding onto a loser hoping it will return and gotten burned. It's easy to do. Once a stock breaks its 200 dma on a chart, it is difficult to comeback. The good thing Apple has going for it is great fundamentals so I don't think it is a broken company as some will make you think. Apple has value and lots of cash. Tim Cook and Oppenheimer, his CFO, have had too many earnings disappointments and have exposed Apple to extreme and yes, overdone, negative sentiment. What I would suggest and I am doing myself is next time we see a big bump up, take some off the table, put it in more stable companies. I have had wonderful returns with companies such as IBM, PSX, CVX, MCD. These are long term and even some of these have given much gyration near term if a bad comp sales report hits the wires, or inventories are bad, yada yada. Diversify. Keep some Apple too. Amazing is when the others are down, Apple may be up and it will help ease the pain. That's the best advice I can give you. Trust me you aren't the only one who got burned. Last report wasn't bad, but the guidance call and pisspour conference call turned off most analysts and unfortunately they can make you or break you.

    • Methinks you should seriously consider learning technical analysis and develop a system of trading.

    • Hindsight is 20/20. I am actually on a daily basis AMAZED that I allowed myself to lose so much money. I could work for the next 10 years and save every penny and not make back what I lost. Its just that every other time I was able to ride it out- and maybe this time was just a bit longer. Who knows- I just know UI am eager to buy more shares but if teh perice gets killed IDK what to do. If teh market was down today apple woudl have TANKED. Most miserable 5 months of my life. Tghanks for the advice guys.

    • Last year I invested AAPL both long and short. I would either buy stock and sell calls, or sell puts, but most often I would buy both calls and puts and ride one side profitably. The stock moves so fast that this is a very worthwhile strategy to consider. Starting September for some reason I cannot comprehend, I started lightening up my put positions a bit too aggressively and got killed in a few large down draft days. I never recovered. Strangles and straddles work very well in this kind of a stock. Ofcourse you could simply write calls but the stock is expensive so after losses it's hard to not put your eggs in one basket as some are suggesting. This is why I say buy straddles or spreads. Right now I am all long. About 10-15 calls in the 500 range for April.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • dorianpc Feb 1, 2013 3:23 PM Flag

      As long as you believe that P/E means nothing you are doomed. The trick right now is determining what earnings are going to be. Once you have those numbers, it will be pretty easy to see that you need to scale out of this thing. Keep an eye on apple's cash, and what they are doing with it. If you see a dollar that is not coming bac to you It is time to cut and run. The market loves to make mincemeat out of heroes. Right now there is blood in the water and it is about to spill into the street once the next feeding frenzy starts. Take every dime and invest in nokia. It is the onlyway for you to get your money back. Apple has nothing in the pipeline and the carriers are going to tell them to shove their high priced phoñes. Even china doesn't want them.
      Are you listening? You are chained to a corpse. NOKIA asha and lumia is the future with MS calling the shots.
      remeber. Cash is key. If you see it drop, it's al over. The market will take this thing down and leave you crying like a baby. WINDOWS TABLET COMING. APPLE is for old people who smell like hospitals.
      Some one should take apple tothe hospital wher it can die in peace.

    • What ever you do don't buy any options the MM'S will take all your money!!

    • I am seriously thinking of doubling down via long term calls. Could be a disaster but Apple is too strong fundamentally to not approach $600 or more over the next year. Shoot, cash is worth 30% of hte capitalization.

      Current valuation assumes 30% declines over the foreseeable future.

      200 Billion iTunes downloads in 2012. That's not going to go away anytime soon.

      iCloud. Not going away.International e

      Apps. Not going away.

      Tablets and phones may be lower mkt % but the markets are growing. iPhone is actually increasing share in US. A lot of EU share shrinkage is EU is in tough financial times. International economies are turning around; iPhone is still the choice, albeit pricey.

      Projected margins according to aapl outlook look to be solid. Margins rival the best of software companies.

      This is still a growing business; not 50-70% but 20% is real.

      DMAs change and when the 50 dma crosses 200 dma the technicals will scream upside.

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