This is a no brainer, and I believe Apple trading below $500 is a clear buy. Investors will benefit from (hopefully) more buybacks and dividends in 2013 and beyond. In March 2012, the company announced a repurchase program totaling $10 billion for fiscal 2013. Apple ended the recent quarter with $39.8 billion in cash and marketable securities and generated $61.4 billion in free cash flow over the last year. Apple can at the very least double its buyback program and dividend without any significant damage to the cash balance.
$545 is a reasonable target based on the stock's average multiple from the past two-year period (as of January 23, 2013 when the company reported December 2012 results) of 11.5x to FY14 EPS estimates of $47.55.
Whatever you said here is not new news? Everyone has seen it already. Why isn't the share price going to $500? There must be a reason.
Just take one of the several points you cited as supporting argument. You said, Apple can double its buyback and dividend. Of course, Apple CAN do that. But, the question is, WILL Apple do it?
Tim Cook used the phrase "silly sideshow" to describe a sharedholder's action recently. What does he think of your proposal to double the dividend and the buyback? Tim Book thinks you are silly as well. Very possible.
Now you see the problem of your argument? Tim Cook may or may not do what you think is logical. That's the problem, isn't it?