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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • carson5016 carson5016 Feb 18, 2013 12:10 PM Flag

    Technical Analysis of Appl

    Disclaimer: I am only giving my opinion. Please do your own due diligence. Also technical analysis can be destroyed by macro news as in sequestration march 1st.

    That being said i know the internet is a big place for alot of losers to post nonsense. But for the few actual investors or traders who use this message board I'm interested in responses to appl technical analysis.

    Of course fundamentally its one of the best companies out there. All this talk of saturation effects can be removed in one hour when china is fully opened to the iphone markets. That being said, and ignoring the possibilities of sequestration effects on the market, technically appl is very close to a serious bounce.

    Divergence: 3 day and weekly stochasitcs.
    weekly RSI

    Reversal: Daily MACD Cross long
    3 Day MACD almost crossed but pulled back.
    Weekly MACD has not crossed yet but its RSI has which leads the slowest of the macds

    Trend line: Apple is in a slow upward trend. Drawing a wedge shape you can see lows at jan 25 $435 and again at feb 4 $442. Next add a line at the tops of the trend and you can see the trend range. With the trend already at 2 points and the longer term divergence and macd bullish crosses I would look to appl approaching $450-$455 range possibly tomorrow and holding.

    If it breaks range it may fail but being the third attempt and if successful the third higher low along with long term oscillators reversing, the downside risk is limited.

    I'm looking out to the June $550 calls for currently $515 although I'm looking more in the range of $400.

    Bollinger Bands and longer term MAs not to mention round number strength make me think $500 would be a long term resistance level but appl is a fast mover. If it breaks its previous high of $484.90 and accomplishes 3 higher lows and 3 higher highs along with previous stated oscillators confirming you should be looking for quiet acumulation before they begin pumping again.

    Interested in what traders think about this. Knowing this market is ridiculous and any "fair market" where apple can make 4 billion a week and roll over and netflix can be bleeding money and amazon trade at 3000 pe ratios and they are the darlings of wall st then surely theres a chance of loss here.

    But if i give myself enough time, i feel fairly confident in this trade. I would not hold to $550 but would most likely exit at the $500 range with a 4 to 5 bagger of my calls. The $500 calls are too expensive relative to the risk reward. I'm looking at buying 6 of them. Any thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I see your looking at a short term analysis on this one. If you do all of the same on a 5 year daily chart then draw out your bottom trend lines on all its bottoms, you will see that earnings day killed its trend line and broke through on the downside. I would wait awhile to let this settle off. Still will need to bounce off of Oct. 17 and jan 19, 2011 at 426 and 431. Technically speaking I think its headed there first and lower to 400 before a bounce higher back to the 500 level.

      • 2 Replies to msutrader15
      • i agree with your long term analysis but if you look at my strategy im only looking 4 months out for my options. implied volatility is under 20% for those calls, etrade says its only 5% but that may be wrong until market opens again. Short term i think the market will get hit hard by sequestration and suddenly people will be looking for safe havens again and will flood back to apple. Thats just my opinion but technically if you look at a 6 month chart theres a very strong case to say the bottom is in. This is the stock market though, and reason is no where to be seen when a market it up 6% already. Dow has to hit 21,000 to hold this bullish sentiment all year. Not a chance...

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I am bullish based on the 5 year chart of apple. I am using the 1 year (52) and 2 year (104) moving averages. I realize these moving averages aren't mainstream, but it has served me well with many companies while the 50/200 seem to have a lot of false crossovers. Apple is currently trading just below it's 2 year moving average (470 currently) which it has always bounced up from.. Also apple has gave up 78% of it's 2012 gains which is a common Fib retracement.

    • Seems like you are trying to talk yourself into a bullish case. Look at daily chart. Overall trend is down. MACD weak, stochs still dropping, (granted they are oversold) RSI @ 41 and dropping. There are lower lows and lower highs with what looks like a potential HS formation. Stock price looks as if it wants to retest 454. An eventual gap fill at 425 and a test of 419 wouldn't surprise me. Of course there could be some oversold dead cat bounces along the way. Any kind of epic good news though would turn things around very fast. Buying OTM options is never a good thing IMO. Buy DITM at least 6 months out.

    • I find no flaw in your TA....and there are fundamentals/news potential to stimulate upside movement (divvy increase, buy back, CHL news, etc.)...APPL current suffers 2 deficits....Hedge funds realize that it is not beyond manipulation despite its size (CNBC has the most to lose if AAPL enters TV in a big way with both transmission and content)...weekly options have facilitated that...and it is currently a "tweener". Some where between growth and value in many investor's eyes. Another limiting factor is the classic risk profile of most funds for limiting the %age of a portfolio one stock can represent....who else can buy it" issue. Both the value and ownership issues can be addresssed...Value /growth by a not overly dramatic uptick in diiviends/buyback (or pure growth product...intersting but unnecessary.)...the % ownership can be addressed as well...spilt the stock to make it more attractive as a Dow component and stimulating purchases as index ETFs get purchased in lieu of individual stocks...also the greatly anticipated "big rotation" out of bonds would provide stimulus..and a greater foreign ownership interest could provide the "new" class of buyers....These are mostly short term movers...in the long run $40 B a year in profit cannot be ignored forever....regardless of past growth profile

 
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