For the longs only --- Do you think AAPL will reach lower than $420 ? I think $420 or $425 is the lowest.
This is only the question to the longs.... because the shorts will say that it will go to $350... which is crazy.
I`ve been flat and just day trading AAPL since 550.
Below is a post I made on Dec. 16 when the stock was trading in the 510-520 range.
The post is long and technical and you can read it if you wish, but I will summarize the main point.
The POTENTIAL ultimate bottom from my technical perspective at that time was 340. That`s right, 340. That is extreme and unlikely, but possible. At the time I thought 450 as a bottom was a long shot but certainly not out of the question, and here we are even lower at 430.
If, and I say if, AAPL is being accumulated now by "smart money", then there should be strong rejection at support and resistance in the 435-465 zone. This doesn`t mean it can`t breach those areas, but if it is truly being accumulated before another up trend, you should see strong buying and strong selling at the opposite ends of this trading range.
425 would fill that old gap, 420 would be the overshoot.
If we don`t see some hard bounces (springs) down in this area that get ridden up steadily to the 465 zone before being pushed back down after some shoot through upthrust, then this consolidation has just been the pause before the next leg down.
It seems like 425-420 should be the area that will get firmly rejected and spring it back into the accumulation zone, from where it should eventually break out to the upside and test 520 again.
Unfortunately 400 is also licking its chops like a begging dog hoping that crumb will drop from the table. The downward momentum has been unbelievably strong and it might not be over.
Here`s Dec 16 post talking about bullish divergences:
You are right BUT here`s the scary thing:
Since the crash of 2008, 14RSI of 29-30 has been the bottom and has always announced a big reversal and somewhat extensive run up.
But this fall from 700 has been beating all downside records held since 2008 when it comes to technicals, percentages and swiftness of fall from a top.
Looking at the chart and RSI, yes it seems we should bounce up Monday a la double bottom with RSI in bullish divergence formation (Nov 8 RSI 23.9 PPS 538 -- Dec 14 RSI 31.3 PPS 509, i.e., price lower but RSI higher). And we just might, and that might be the end of the fall.
And yes the RSI is right at the usual bounce point, BUT like I said, this fall has been setting new post-2008 records.
AND this is where it even gets worse RSI wise:
A bullish divergence, just like a bearish divergence can take a while to fully mature after the first empirical sign is given.
Case in point:
Sept 17 2008 AAPL hit an astounding RSI low of 17.1 at a price or 128.
Oct 9 2008 it showed a clear bullish divergence with an RSI of 22.5 and a price 89.
Nov 20 2008 the bullish convergence reached maturity with an RSI of 33.7 and a price of 80--meaning from there the trend reversed turned up for a long time.
But from the RSI low to the final low of the price and completion of the bullish diversion was a change of 37%.
If something similar were to happen now, it would imply an ultimate bottom of 340.
I don`t think this will happen, but if this divergence takes a little more time to mature as it often does, a bottom of 450 is not out of the question.
We could get a nice bounce Monday into the 520s even if it opens down.
But these days the unexpected is more the expected. It is also very rare that AAPL gaps down 3 days in a row without the 3rd day bouncing up and closing higher.
But again, these tax-selling-ain`t-seen-this-since-2008 days are confounding at best and anything can happen.
disclaimer: I have only been doing this for less than a year--so consider all my info for entertainment purposes only. If I had known what I know now, it would have been a lot easier to see the 700 top and big fall coming as it was a screaming bearish divergence on the 14RSI that took one month to mature--August 20 to Sept 19. Unfortunately, I didn`t realize just how long it takes for this stuff to take root in your mind and ring the bell of reason when your own sentiment has gone postal euphoric, bubbling naiveté and carving out the trenches of denial. Even so, I do hope we go up soon. Less
I see the stock dipping below $400 after the next earnings report. Honestly, if a quarter of record profits and record iPhone sales sends the stock sinking 10+ percent, what can Apple possibly report to make the stock go up? It is possible a dividend or buyback increase would change that though. Wait for a drop below $400, then buy aggressively as this stock will be rocketing back in the 2nd half.
AAPL can (will) come out "unexpectedly" and announce some benefit distribution of the 137bil hoard. If we can believe TC that they are looking "very, very" closely at ways to increase ROI to shareholders, this can happen very soon...probably before the end of March. That would produce a sharp spike up....as will news on partnering with China Mobile, less expensive iPhone and iWatch projections. GLTA
because the shorts will say that it will go to $350... which is crazy.
$705 to $430 in 6 months, why do you think $350 is crazy? it can very easily hit that number.
Sentiment: Strong Sell