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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • vlad2vlad vlad2vlad Mar 6, 2013 10:17 PM Flag

    -- Just went long apple today with calls

    I bought the jan 14 $680 calls at $2.59.

    There's lots of catalysts coming soon.

    1) a huge dividend

    2) iPad 5, iPad mini 2

    3) iPhone 5S (yes, I think we'll get a 5s by April and then an iPhone 6 by August or September)

    4) New product like an iWatch, although this may not launch until 2H, rumors would come out much sooner.

    5) better than expected earnings as the iPad mini is probably not eating into the regular iPad as much as expected.

    Any of these events has the potential to pop the price by $100 in a matter of just a few days and I'm only looking for a double or a triple and given these calls has some 9 months left the odds of making money on them is great.

    Good luck to everyone!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • dick.harper@email.com dick.harper Mar 6, 2013 11:17 PM Flag

      Betting your money by trying it at slot machines in a casino should give you a better return than such move you have made! I can see you have not met the Market Makers, they not only can break your last never, but your bank too! As for iWatch, iPad mini2, and iTV, they will be DOA.

    • Sorry but that's an amateur move, buying OTM calls (60% above current stock price !!!)
      Zero delta, just time value.....you are not betting on AAPL, just that Jan 2014 has so much time left !!!

      Sure way to lose money

    • calls_them_as_i_see_them calls_them_as_i_see_them Mar 6, 2013 11:05 PM Flag

      I hope you didn't buy a lot of them. Never good to buy OTM calls even that far out.

    • Apple Will Miss Its Own Revenue Guidance, Says Citi

      Citigroup has a new, quite bearish note on Apple this morning.

      We ran through the meat of the note already. In a nutshell, demand for iPads and iPhones is falling, says Citi after talking to supply chain sources.

      As a result, Citi cut its estimates. And the result of those estimate cuts is quite dire.

      Citi is now calling for $40.45 billion in sales for the March quarter. Apple guided to between $41 and $43 billion in sales for this quarter. If Citi's forecast is accurate, then Apple would miss its own revenue guidance.

      Apple has been missing analyst expectations lately, but we can't remember it ever missing its own guidance.

      • 2 Replies to ametrosixual
      • interesting, thank for that note...and combined with GS taking my QCOM off its conviction buy list saying its chips sales are peaking?? that makes it pretty bearish for the industry, not just for apple. I c the revenue expectations is about $43 billion for the Q. If it guides lower, that is going to be a big wallop to the stock - say $50 haircut.

      • The iPhone 5 is not on fire cause its played out but it's still new so globally I think it's doing well. But it's gonna be in serious trouble in Q2 when the S4 and many other better quad core phones come out with much better cameras and more innovation.

        This is another reason why I think Apple has to release a new iPhone in the next 30-45 days. They're keeping it quiet to keep iPhone 5 sales going. If I'm wrong then apple will get killed quarter by much better phones which would mean cook is a total amateur who can't even see the most obvious trends. Arrogance does breed stupidity just look at the 2 fool who ran blackberry past the point of no return.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • That was a bad move and worse timing.

      • 1 Reply to gigabyte426
      • If they warn then the timing is going to prove horrible.

        I did it now cause I think they're gonna release a new iPad 5, iPad mini 2 and most likely an iPhone 5S in the next 30-45 days in which case there's gonna be leaks any day now and the stock would spike on that especially on a new iPhone 5S since that would create a Q4 like spike in sales and profits and hurt Samsung something bad. If cook doesn't put out a new iPhone in the next 60 days to combat the S4 then he's truly a coward and a dummy.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • what happens to your calls if they warn on q2 next week as analysts predict?

    • van.miles@ymail.com van.miles Mar 6, 2013 10:35 PM Flag

      Apple can pay a big dividend or buy back stock. Approximately $100bil of the $150bil is overseas. Apple will have to pay US taxes on it first prior to paying a dividend or stock buy back. Cook would have done the dividend and/or stock buy back if he could but he can't because of the tax problem. Buy some Blackberry calls. That's were the action is.

      • 1 Reply to van.miles
      • Blackberry is gonna implode once their new BB10 device fails and I think it will.

        It's volatile so you may make money with calls but have some puts cause its a risky move.

        I've got some leaps on nokia, nokia should really go higher in a big way in the next few quarters once it shows they're profitable and Q4 was not a fluke.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Speaking of calls...BAD CALL.

    • if I want to go long, I would sell the OTM puts instead. I'm sure apple will pop here and there throughout the year and you may get some upside premium on long dated calls even though I doubt very much $680 will be reached. There is too much competition now. And those who lost so much money on this stock will sell it late in the year for tax writeoffs so that will keep the stock depressed late in the year. And you are betting on Tim Cook doing something smart. That is a tough bet. I rather sell the puts and own the stock at much lower levels if I have too, and collect the premium if it goes up.

 
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