All the institutional sellers that want out are out. All the unhedged duuucetebag shorts that think its going down are limited to 20 shares at most apiece, everyone professionally managing money is trying to pick off shares before the big runup gets underway.
Here's a big secret for all you short chumps: there is less than 2 days short interest now and the ask is very touchy... prepare for launch. We can hardly wait for Grunlach to say he's covered and now VERY long... same with Putz Katz who called this a "generational buy" at first dip to $530 before saying he was out and short at $590 and then covered in again at $530 a week total lapsed time. He's a F tool alright.
But the real reason aapl is about to take off is that the new trade is long AAPL paired off (short) with goog.
Back above $600 by EOY... fun to watch.
and now Bill Miller chimes in saying the stock is cheaper than Safeway so they are back to a full allocation. He also made it clear he thinks this stock is about to soar as they get past all the bs of margins and Samsung and revenue stall and investors get focused on coming new innovative products and growth.
He also said the company is canvassing large sh for capital distrib input and that he thinks they will be "DOING SOMETHING SURPRISINGLY LARGE" IN TERMS OF CAPITAL DISTRIBUTIONS TO SH."
Hey squeeze, couldn't agree more on all points, and also been thinking about the goog pair... thinking they meet at around 600 by EOY. Crazy to watch the whiplash sentiment of the flavor of the month. Two quarters ago goog was on the outs, missed on the Q, keyword prices were supposedly declining, facebook was supposed to launch search and take share...and now? Goog to 1000 whatever valuation that implies!!!! What a joke. Don't even need a catalyst here, just reverting to trend when life doesn't end for AAPL as we know it gets us back to 600 with a modet 13-14x EPS / FCF multiple. New developments or a multiple beyond that is just gravy.
The type of trading we saw today is exactly what happens when sentiment hits a nadir and panic selling hits a peak. The sellers get exhausted and at some point, say when there is blurb about payment processing tech, the panic buyers jump in... Now if aapl was still the street darling, that same blurb would have sent aapl up 5% and MA and V each down 8%. And that is exactly when I would stay clear of the name.... trading like today doesn't take any news at all from where we are. Speculation and the divi response a few weeks ago saw a pop to 480... on actual news we can be up 15% in a week and trending higher...
I think we are stuck in a trading range until the next quarterly in the 3rd week of April. You may be right that the heavy selling is easing but I don't think fund mangers feel pressured into buying. AAPL has to show some qtrly performance before the big buyers come back. I do think the 419 will hold as a bottom.
all of those pieces and more is going to drive substantial outperformance to guidance and, FINALLY, the analysts have consensus TIGHT to guidance! The table is set for all of the following:
China Mobile phone in production for delivery mid year?, new i5S before that, i Watch coming when they get happy with the battery, 23 hour Mini Ipad with retina screen the next iteration, iMac availability now 1-2 days (going out by the semi-trailer full to places like Aetna, United health Care, Home Depot corporate, etc.) and the educational version at $1000 pp will be a smash, this year's iPad to school district sales will be MONSTER BIG, streaming music should be on line by EOY, itunes/ service/on line apps and product accessories may top $20B this year, and so on until the cows stomp all the shorts...
pm don't need to race to buy the stock... but that is coming because if they do not, they will again as they did last year, fail to ride the pony that will lead the market MUCH higher.
The hedge trade of the week going on all week is to quietly bail out of goog, then short that much with proceeds to long AAPL. The next couple of weeks should be fun... and hopefully the dopes in cupertino get it together already on the BIG buyback, doubling the common div, and what else?