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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • traderapple traderapple Mar 12, 2013 7:23 PM Flag

    What if Apple misses this quarter?

    1. I have been long all along, and have lost close to six figures (no kidding!).

    2. I am reading all the analysts, and the sentiment is very very bearish. Majority of the ones speaking out are suggesting they will miss their numbers.

    3. The market does have lot more competition in all markets. Competition has pretty good products. Apple still may have the best products, but people are buying competitor products and are satisfied.

    4. There is commoditization going on in the smartphones, tablets, mp3s and computers... all markets are under intense margin pressures. And competition is flooring the price!

    5. Apple does not have any new products to sell this quarter (except the iPad mini which came out late last year, and the iPhone 5). Cook said in the CC that he was surprised that the best seller was the iPhone 4 (lower margins!), and the iPad mini (lower margins).

    So, the big question is would Apple make or miss their quarterly numbers? I used to think that they will make the revenue number, but the profit number could be an issue (based on how many lower margin products they sell!).

    Apple has been quite silent about their quarter so far, and they cannot say anything (unless they are sure to miss, and have to give a new guidance).

    On the other hand, we do know that Apple is actively thinking of doing something with the cash, and could provide a huge one-time dividend, increase their buy back, and/or split their shares, any of which will cause a near-term growth in the stock price.

    I already sold most of my position today and took more losses (since the street is relentless, and I am now beginning to think that Apple could actually miss their numbers! Earlier I was skeptical, now I am thinking, all these guys can't be wrong together - do they know more than retail investors?). Also, Cook said in the investor conference to have a longer-term view for the shares to appreciate.

    I would like some honest, well thought out responses.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • calls_them_as_i_see_them calls_them_as_i_see_them Mar 12, 2013 8:05 PM Flag

      Quite frankly I don't see how Apple can make the numbers. The only hope is for analysts to keep cutting estimates but even then it may not be enough. No way should anyone hold through earnings. Best bet is to hope for an announcement of some sort and then sell on the pop. Perhaps stock price can get to 450 or higher before earnings.

    • I agree, I am long Apple myself, but the companies silence is sickening, I am thinking now, when sometimes you don't say anything is because you have nothing to say,,, good luck to all of us

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I am starting to think we will miss also. I am not selling yet though, I hope for an announcement in the next couple of weeks of a large buy back or Divy increase, this could propel the stock 50+ points over a few weeks and then I will be out. I have had enough after 6 months of this, it could go on for another year, I have lost the stomach for it when the market is at all time highs and AAPL one year lows. What happens if there is an overall market correction. I believe in AAPL long term but enough is enough.

    • It depends how you define "miss." Wall Street sets high expectations and keeps raising guidance even if its unrealistic for a company like apple to hit. Look at last qtr. They "missed" EPS by pennies and revenue by a small amount. Was it a miss? No. The analyst never took into consideration the calender differences with number of weeks. Did anyone care? No. The market wants apple lower and they paint whatever picture they want to get it there. It's Gorden Gecko times 5. Apple beat their number and by about 30%. Like I said. They don't care. Misek and CNBC seemed to have orchestrated an extremely coordinated beat attack and everyone is jumping on just like they do when the upgrades come. Wall Street works for Wall Street and not us retailers who really care about the brand, product and stock performance.

      Until we get that one catalyst, and I believe it will happen in next few weeks, we will trade up and down and up and down. Trading billions to options and crooks who have a front row seat to market makers.

      Hang tight. It will so settle and we will be back on top.

      As the great warren says " be greedy when others are fearful"

    • Even if they MEET, chances are the stock will drop anyway. It typically does after earnings (IIRC). Look at what it did last earnings. IIRC, they had record revenue and profits, yet still dropped something like $30 the next day.

    • I don't believe a word of your BS. A wise man would've bought more (not sold) at a loss and acted like a scared little pup begging for advice. Your due diligence is insufficient. And your investment strategy is unwise.

    • I have also held Apple for a while and am starting to think about selling for a loss. With all of their cash, I would be happier if they could at least increase the dividend a little. If they miss their numbers, I fear that we could drop under $400. Cook is not Steve Jobs

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Looks like a miss is considered very possible and is being priced in. The question is how bad of a miss and MORE importantly guidance.

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